Originally published by CMC Markets
Traders appear to be turning against resource dollars today. Crude oil was steady but gold has fallen. The loonie has dropped nearly 1%. Declines in the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar suggest that there has been a general negative turn in sentiment toward resource dollars. Meanwhile capital continues to flow out of havens like yen back into risk markets like indices.
Asia Pacific Indices
The S&P/ASX 200 remains stuck in neutral, trading sideways between 5,550 and 5,800 recently trading near the middle around 5,725. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum.
The Nikkei 225 is breaking out today, clearing 20,000 and advancing on 20,135. Next potential resistance near 20,200 then its June peak near 20,345. Rising RSI confirms accelerating upward momentum.
The Hang Seng is retesting 28,190 resistance which could end in a double top or a major breakout. The RSI has broken out of a downtrend indicating increased accumulation. Support rises toward 28,000 with next measured resistance possible near 28,280.
North American and European Indices
The Nasdaq 100 is breaking out today, clearing 6,000 to complete an ascending triangle and signal the start of a new upleg. Next potential resistance near a measured 6,055 then 6,100. Initial support rises toward 5,965.
The FTSE 100 is having an inside day, consolidating Friday’s big breakdown below 7,300 and its 200-day average that signalled the start of a new downtrend. The index has paused near 7,255 with downside support in place near 7,195 Friday’s low then 7,155 a Fibonacci level.
The DAX tried to break out of the 12,480 to 12,565 range it has been consolidating in lately and took a run at 12,610 but it has since slumped back toward 12,540 with next support near 12,500. Flattening RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off.
Commodities
Gold's correction continues to deepen. The prise has broken down below $1,322, a Fibonacci level, and plunged toward $1,315 with next potential support near $1,300 where a round number and a common 38% retracement of its previous uptrend converge. RSI falling toward 50 indicates momentum downshifting from upward to neutral with a downturn pending.
WTI crude oil failed to break out over $50.20 resistance and has been knocked back down toward $49.80 but at the same time it continues to hold above its 200-day average near $49.35 with next support at its 50-day average near $48.00. RSI peaking near 60 indicates its broader sideways trend remains intact while an ascending triangle indicates continued underlying accumulation.
FX
The US Dollar Index is sitting steady near 91.65 in the lower half of a 91.00 to 93.00 trading range with initial support near 91.35 and initial resistance possible near 92.40.higher lows suggest base building underway.
EUR/USD remains in an uptrend with support rising toward $1.1900 from $1.1840 and the pair advancing on $1.1940. The RSI is holding 50 to keep accumulation intact but upward momentum has slowed. Next potential resistance near $1.2000 then $1.2100.
GBP/USD has dropped back under $1.3500 and carried on down toward $1.3475 in a normal trading correction following a massive rally last week that left this pair really overbought on the RSI. Next potential support in the $1.3375 to $1.3400 area.
NZD/USD appears to be moving into a sideways range, unable to break through $0.7340 resistance, and the RSI hanging around 50. Higher lows forming an ascending triangle indicate an uptrend emerging with current support between $0.7250 and $0.7275 a Fibonacci level.
AUD/USD appears to be rolling over, breaking down under $0.8000 as it continues to fall away from a Shooting Star peak. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support appears at the 50-day average near $0.7930.
USD/SGD remains under distribution, falling in a declining channel of lower highs and lower lows. Next potential support. The pair remains below $1.3500 with next potential support near $1.3410.
USD/JPY keeps on climbing, with support moving up toward 110.90 from 110.00 and the pair advancing on 111.65. Next potential resistance in the 111.65 to 111.95 zone, a cluster of Fibonacci levels. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum accelerating.
GBP/JPY has paused to consolidate recent explosive gains and work off an overbought RSI. The pair has encountered resistance near 151.60 but has been holding above 150.00 for now. Initial pullback support possible near 149.00 then 147.95.
EUR/JPY continues to climb, building on Friday’s breakout over 131.85 that completed an ascending triangle by advancing on 133.25. RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating. Next potential measured resistance near 134.35.
USD/CAD is breaking out of a base today, soaring up form near $1.2230 toward $1.2330 with support rising toward $1.2310. RSI climbing toward 50 indicates confirmation of an upturn pending. Next potential resistance near $1.2425 then $1.2485 a common 23% retracement of its previous downtrend.