Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....

When I started working in the financial markets, bond traders were the cool kids. The equity guys drove Maseratis and acted like buffoons, but the bond guys drove sensible style like Mercedes and...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees.The 2-Year Treasury yield – widely monitored as a proxy...

I was going to write a technical column today about how the sensitivity of bonds (and consequently, lots of other asset prices) to interest rates increase as interest rates decline, and discuss the...

Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States...

Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are seen up. But not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we...

The past few years have seen extreme volatility in the bond market, equating to similar interest rate fluctuations.And it all started with the onset of the coronavirus. The initial panic decline in...

Considering our national debt and the debts of companies and consumers, it’s evident that the bond market is critical to our economy.This is likely why the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade...

For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the...

Last month I reported that the ‘fair value’ of the US 10-year Treasury yield appeared “lofty” relative to the average estimate for a combination model. In the weeks since, the...

Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a higher starting running yield and subsequent falls in market rates. Bonds will be a...

The recent rise in real yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIPS) looks compelling for locking in relatively attractive payout rates, but the usual risks with bonds still applies. That...

2-year Treasury rates could be on their way to between 4% and 4.25% Fed monetary policy could be the main driver The 2-year appears to be breaking out from a technical standpoint Rates have been...

Treasury rates fell sharply as interest rate volatility dropped High-yield bonds rose big last month, but uncertainty lies ahead Traders monitoring important technical pattern on U.S. 10-year yield...