Originally published by CMC Markets
With the US dollar strengthening, gold has broken down today, falling below $1,300 per ounce while bearish sentiment toward resource currencies has pushed AUD/USD back under $0.8000. NZD/USD remains volatile ahead of the upcoming NZ election. The yen continues to weaken, particularly relative to the resurgent pound.
Asia Pacific Indices
The S&P/ASX 200 is testing the bottom of its 5,655 to 5,800 trading range, having dropped down from 5,720. RSI back under 50 indicates momentum turning downward. Next potential support on a breakdown possible near 5,625 then 5,585.
The Nikkei 225 ran into resistance near 20,500 and has started to drop back, falling toward 20,345. A doji candle suggests bulls losing control and bears reasserting themselves. Initial support in a pullback possible near 20,300 then 20,265 and 20,100. RSI just starting to get overbought.
The Hang Seng continues to trade between 28,000 and 28,190. Falling RSI indicates upward momentum slowing and a double top suggests the current advance has peaked. Next support on a round number breakdown possible near 27,880.
North American and European Indices
The Nasdaq 100 has started to fall away from a double top near the 6,000 round number, slumping back toward 5,950. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum slowing and a downturn pending. Next potential support near 5,930 then 5,900.
The FTSE 100 remains in a downtrend following a retest of its recent 7,300 breakdown point as new resistance. The index has dropped toward 7,255 with next potential support near 7,200. RSI under 50 and rolling over confirms downward pressure increasing.
The DAXis consolidating the recent rally up off of 12,500 at a higher level, trading between 12,580 and 12,640. Upward momentum continues to flatten out. Next potential resistance on trend near 12,680 then 12,790.
Commodities
Gold is breaking down today, taking out $1,300 round number plus Fibonacci support to signal the start of a new downleg. The price has dropped toward $1,292 with next potential support near $1,288 then $1,282 a 50% retracement of its previous uptrend. RSI under 50 and falling confirms accelerating downward momentum.
WTI crude oil continues to bounce around between its 200-day average near $49.30 and resistance near $50.70 trading close to the $50.00 round number. The price recently slipped back under $50.00 in what looks like another downswing within this range.
FX
The US Dollar Index is holding on to Wednesday’s gains, trading near 92.20 in the upper half of a 91.00 to 93.00 base building range. RSI advancing on 50 indicates downward pressure easing and an upturn pending.
EUR/USD appears to be forming a head and shoulders top with the recent failure at $1.2000 carving out the right shoulder. The pair held the $1.1875 neckline for now rebounding toward $1.1935. Next potential support on a breakdown near the 50-day average near $1.1800 followed by $1.1755. RSI testing 50 where a break would signal a downturn in momentum.
GBP/USD rallied up off $1.3500 toward $1.3580 on renewed interest while it continues to consolidate a recent rally and work off an overbought RSI in the $1.3445 to $1.3665 range.
NZD/USD is sending mixed signals. The pair remains in an uptrend with support rising toward $0.7300 but resistance has dropped back from $0.7430 toward $0.7360. Initial downside support near $0.7250. RSI indicates a pause within an uptrend.
AUD/USD is breaking down today, taking out $0.8000 and diving down toward $0.7935 and its 50-day average. Next support possible near $0.7900 then $0.7870. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning back downward.
USD/SGD has regained $1.3500, but it really needs to retake its 50-day average near $1.3570 and 50 on the RSI to break its steady downtrend and signal the start of a new recovery play. Next resistance possible near $1.3610 if successful. Support rises toward $1.3490 from $1.3415.
USD/JPY continues to climb, establishing its 200-day average near 112.20 as higher support following a breakout and advancing on 112.55 with next potential resistance near $113.00 a round number and Fibonacci level. RSI above 50 and rising confirms accelerating upward momentum.
GBP/JPY keeps screaming upward, rallying from 151.50 higher support toward 152.80, confirming that the second rally phase of a flag pattern appears to be underway. RSI is getting really overbought but still indicates increasing upward momentum for now. Next resistance possible near 155.00 where a measured move and round number converge.
EUR/JPY remains under accumulation, rallying to a new high on trend near 134.30 with next potential resistance near the 135.00 round number. RSI still indicates increasing upward momentum but is approaching overbought territory. Initial support still in place near 133.40.
USD/CAD popped up from $1.2200 toward $1.2400 and a significant resistance test before settling back toward $1.2335. A move above $1.2400 would break a downtrend that started back in May while remaining below it would keep the downtrend intact. Meanwhile, the RSI is testing 50 where a breakout would confirm an upturn while a failure would confirm distribution. Next upside resistance possible near the $1.2500 round number with initial downside support near $1.2250.