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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, yuan fall as Sino-U.S.trade war deepens; China retaliation eyed

Published 13/05/2019, 04:49 pm
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, yuan fall as Sino-U.S.trade war deepens; China retaliation eyed
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* US prepares to raise tariffs on all remaining imports from China

* China defiant, Trump-Xi talks seen likely at G20 summit in June

* Yuan at 4-month lows; Bitcoin jumps to 9-month highs

* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* European stocks set to open mixed

By Tomo Uetake and Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures and Asian shares fell on Monday on growing anxiety over whether the United States and China will be able to salvage a trade deal, after Washington sharply hiked tariffs and Beijing vowed to retaliate.

The United States and China appeared at a deadlock over trade negotiations on Sunday as Washington demanded promises of concrete changes to Chinese law and Beijing said it would not swallow any "bitter fruit" that harmed its interests. are bracing for threatened "counter-measures" from China in retaliation for Washington's tariff increase on Friday on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The move followed accusations by U.S. President Donald Trump that Beijing "broke the deal" by reneging on earlier commitments.

U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis ESc1 , shed 1.1%.

In early European trade, FTSE futures FFIc1 stood almost flat at 7,173, German DAX futures FDXc1 were down 0.1 percent at 12,069.5 and France's CAC 40 futures FCEc1 were up 0.2 percent at 5,332.5.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dropped 0.7%, nearing its two-month low marked on Thursday.

Chinese shares tumbled, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite .SSEC and the blue-chip CSI 300 .CSI300 shedding 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, while Hong Kong's financial markets were closed for a holiday. Nikkei average .N225 sunk as much as 1.0% to hit its lowest level since March 28, before it closed down 0.7%.

U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields US10YT=RR inched down to 2.439%, partly as a safe haven but also on speculation that the escalating trade war would put more pressure on global growth and thus keep major central banks accommodative.

"We not expect China to sell U.S. Treasuries," ING said. This is a tool China will save as a last resort, and it may not even be used in the unlikely event of a breakdown in trade negotiations."

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told a Fox News program that China needs to agree to "very strong" enforcement provisions for an eventual deal and said the sticking point was Beijing's reluctance to put into law changes that had been agreed upon.

Kudlow said the U.S. tariffs would remain in place while negotiations continue and there is a "strong possibility" that Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Japan in late June. base case remains that a trade deal between the United States and China is likely. But news flow today suggests this could take more time and is unlikely to be concluded until late June," said John Woods, Hong Kong-based chief investment officer of APAC at Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) AG.

Others were more pessimistic, noting Washington said it was preparing to raise tariffs on all remaining imports from China, worth approximately $300 billion. base case is for limited progress and Chinese retaliation. We see a significant risk for all Chinese imports to be subject to tariffs over the next month or so," said Michael Hanson, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

"The market reaction will ultimately depend on whether China and the U.S. continue to negotiate, whether the remaining $325 billion of U.S. imports from China also get tariffed, how China retaliates, and what happens to the (section) 232 auto tariffs."

Under that scenario, the renminbi CNY=CFXS was likely to fall between 5%-6% against the U.S. dollar in the coming three months, said Hanson, as a shock absorber to the economic impact of heavier tariffs.

The offshore Chinese yuan fell to its lowest levels in more than four months at 6.88 to the dollar CNH= . It last stood down 0.6% at 6.86 per dollar.

Major currencies were relatively calm, with the safe-haven yen still supported but not aggressively so. The dollar was holding at 109.74 yen JPY= , down 0.2% on the day and just above a 14-week trough of 109.46.

The euro was steady at $1.1234 EUR= , while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies at 97.312 .DXY .

"If there is a lack of progress (in the U.S.-China talks) over the coming weeks, Asian currencies will come under further pressure," noted Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ Research, while adding that his team does not expect the yuan will break the psychological 7 perdollar level.

"While we hope for the best, our baseline case is now for the United States and China to fail to reach a deal, meaning tariffs will get raised on the remainder of Chinese exports to the United States."

In commodity markets, oil prices rose but remained a relatively tight range, with the U.S. crude futures CLc1 were last up 0.1% at $61.73 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOc1 futures gained 0.5 percent at $71.00. O/R

On the other hand, digital currencies maintained most of their big gains made over the weekend.

Bitcoin BTC=BTSP jumped more than 10 percent on Saturday and marked its nine-month high of $7,585.00 on Sunday before paring the gains. It last quoted at $7063.52, up 1.2% on the day.

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https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4 Asia-Pacific valuations

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