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GLOBAL MARKETS-Soothing Fed sounds send shares, emerging markets higher

Published 20/11/2015, 12:16 am
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Soothing Fed sounds send shares, emerging markets higher
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* European shares, Japan's Nikkei hits 3-month peak

* Fed minutes reaffirm Dec hike, cautious on further moves

* Dollar eases from highs, EM rallies

* Bank of Japan maintains stimulus

* ECB minutes point to December QE expansion

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - World shares rallied and the dollar dipped on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve flagged a rate hike next month, but also an intention proceed slowly and steadily after that.

The pick-up in risk sentiment combined with the dip in the dollar .DXY gave commodities a brief reprieve from recent selling, with oil LCOc1 , copper and other industrial metals and gold XAU= up for a while before losing their traction.

European stocks also performed strongly with the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 pushed to a three-month high by 0.8 to 1.6 percent gains in London .FTSE , Frankfurt .GDAXI and Paris .FCHI , after Japan's Nikkei .N225 had hit a similar peak in Asia. .T

Minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting showed most members were ready to sanction the bank's first rise in rates in almost a decade in December as long as further moves then depended on the economy continuing to perform well. ID:nL1N13D20B

It was a cautious enough message to ease any concerns that the U.S. central bank might over eager with its rate rises and torpedo what is already relatively lacklustre growth in the world's largest economy.

"We have had an interesting FOMC minutes and risk assets have rallied across the board with the dollar weaker and EM leading the way," said Alvin Tax an FX strategist at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN) in London.

"That is the success of the Fed really. We expect they will hike in December but then proceed slowly after that and that has soothed markets."

Futures prices pointed to Wall Street's main S&P 500 ESc1 , Dow Jones Industrial 1YMc1 and Nasdaq NQc1 markets adding around 0.4 percent to the sharp 1.4 - 1.6 percent gains they had made on Wednesday. .N

The earlier leaps across Asia meant MSCI's benchmark emerging market share index .MSCIEF , which is up 10 percent since late August, was on course for its best day in a month and the 45-country All World equivalent .WORLD was up for a fourth straight day. EMRG/FRX

Bond markets also seemed to have got the message that there was be no post-December rush on rates from the Fed.

Longer-term debt outperformed and the yield curve flattened noticeably. While two-year yields US2YT=RR rose 3 basis points, those on 30-year paper US30YT=RR actually dipped a basis point.

Yields were lower across most of Europe and Asia too. The premium offered by U.S. two-year debt over its German counterpart yawned out to 124 basis points, the fattest margin since 2006 and a positive for the dollar.

However, being long dollars has been a very crowded trade and investors decided to book some profits in the wake of the Fed minutes. Against a basket of currencies .DXY the dollar dipped 0.5 percent and away from a seven-month peak.

The euro edged back above $1.07 EUR= and off a seven-month trough around $1.0615. The dollar also eased against the yen to 123.09 JPY= , after touching a three-month peak of 123.67.

COMMODITY RELIEF

U.S. traders were readying themselves for what is expected to be a minor fall in jobless claims figures due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT) as well as speeches from heavyweight Fed members, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. .N

Minutes of the European Central Bank's last policy meeting reinforced expectations of further easing from Frankfurt next month just as the Fed is gearing up to raise U.S. interest rates. ID:nF9N12D00X

Peter Praet, the ECB's chief economist, also kept up the speculation that the bank's 'deposit rate' could go even deeper into negative territory, saying in a speech that the so-called "zero lower bound" was lower than most experts had originally thought. ID:nF9N11001S

In Asia overnight, the Bank of Japan surprised no one at its regular policy meeting by maintaining the current pace of asset buying, though many still suspect it will have to ease again at some point to force inflation higher. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nT9N12U019

Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 firmed 1 percent, brushing aside a disappointing report on exports and imports urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nT9N12Z00I, while

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 2 percent led by Australia.

After a slow start, Chinese markets caught the better mood and the CSI300 index .CSI300 of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen added 1.6 percent. .SS

In commodity markets, gold XAU= added 0.6 percent to $1,077.20 an ounce having been at its lowest since early 2010. Zinc, copper, lead and nickel were all near their lowest in five to seven years. MET/L

Oil prices rose from three-month lows on short-covering but began to slip back again ahead of U.S. trading. U.S. crude CLc1 was a shade lower at $40.40 a barrel with Brent LCOc1 at $44.08. O/R

"People are seeing oil at these very low levels and so they want to step in," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam. "But the oversupply is capping gains."

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Global assets in 2015

http://link.reuters.com/dub25t Currencies vs dollar

http://link.reuters.com/tak27s Commodities performance

http://link.reuters.com/rac73w

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