Originally published by CMC Markets
Friday was a volatile day for trading with a number of intraday reversals and activity could continue into the new trading week. Gold tested $1,300 before dropping back while WTI crude oil and Canadian dollar rallied to finish the week. The yen continues to attract support while indices remain under distribution even though an intraday correction on Friday.
Asia Pacific indices
The S&P/ASX 200 continues to bounce around between 5,655 and 5,825 recently trading near 5,750 between 5,710 and 5,780. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum.
The Hang Seng has started to stabilize near 27,000 recently trading near 27,090. A 27,875 to 27,275 trading range appears to be emerging between two Fibonacci levels.
The Nikkei 225 found support near 19,320 and has held its 200-day average, bouncing back up toward 19,500 and a 38% Fibonacci retracement level. RSI still below 50, however and a lower high for the index suggests continued distribution. The index would need to regain 19,795 another Fibonacci level to signal an upturn.
North American and European Indices
The Nasdaq 100 has dropped back to test its 50-day average near 5,800, settling into a 5,770 to 5,830 trading area. RSI under 50 indicates its downtrend continues. Next potential support near 5,760 its recent low.
The FTSE 100 is still sliding with the RSI falling away from 50 indicating downward momentum accelerating. Resistance falls toward 7,350 with the index testing 7,300 channel support. A failure would signal the start of a new downtrend with next support possible near 7,255 then 7,200.
The DAX held 12,090 initial support, with more possible near 12,000, and has rebounded toward 12,170. It remains in a downtrend with the index still below 12,240 Fibonacci and 12,340 channel resistance and the RSI still below 50.
Commodities
Gold tested resistance in the $1,295 to $1,300 area but failed to break through, completing a bearish triple top and then quickly dropped back toward $1,286 with next support possible near $1,270. RSI rising but not overbought indicates increasing accumulation despite Friday’s correction. Next resistance on a breakout possible near $1.308 then $1,336.
WTI crude oil held support at its 50-day average near $46.40 and has spiked back upward, driving through $47.50 and $48.00 on its way toward $48.70. Next potential resistance near $49.20 the 200—day average, then $50.00. RSI back above 50 signals momentum turning back upward.
FX
The US Dollar Index continues to build an ascending triangle back between 92.40 and 94.00 recently trading near 93.30 up off a higher low near 93.15. RSI approaching 50 but a breakout remains necessary to signal an upturn.
EUR/USD still appears to be coming under distribution with a descending triangle top forming between $1.1700 and $1.1900. Resistance falls into the $1.1750 to $1.1770 area with the pair trading near $1.1760. RSI nearing 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum.
GBP/USD appears to be regaining its footing following a selloff. The pair is holding longer term uptrend support near $1.2825 and has bounced back up toward $1.2880. Initial resistance appears near $1.2910 then the 50-day average near $1.2930. RSI stabilizing near 40 suggests the underlying uptrend continues.
NZD/USD continues to turn back upward from a completed correction. Support moves back up toward $0.7275 a Fibonacci level and the pair has advanced on $0.7320. Next potential resistance appears near $0.7330 then $0.7385 a Fibonacci level. RSI close to retaking 50 which would confirm an upturn.
AUD/USD continues to bounce up off of $0.7820 trading up through $0.7900 and on toward $0.7935 with next resistance possible near $0.7965 then $0.8000. RSI bouncing off of 50 indicates underlying accumulation resuming following a common correction.
USD/SGD remains in a downtrend with resistance coming in at a lower high near $1.3670 and the RSI remaining stuck below 50. Next support in a downturn possible near $1.3600 then $1.3540.
USD/JPY continues to decline, falling into the 109.00 to 109.60 area from 110.00. RSI falling away from 50 confirms downward momentum accelerating. The pair held 108.60 in an initial retest of a recent low, but remains under distribution with next support possible near 108.10.
GBP/JPY broke down Friday, taking out 141.00 to confirm the start of a new downleg. Support in the 140.00 to 140.40 area has held so far between a round number and a Fibonacci level but if that zone fails, a previous low near 139.00 could be tested.
EUR/JPY tried to break its 50-day average near 128.25 on Friday but managed to bounce back after dipping toward 127.55. RSI near 50 suggests a sideways trend may be emerging with initial resistance near 128.80.
USD/CAD continues to turn back downward, falling from $1.2600 toward $1.2560 with next potential support near $1.2500 then $1.2425. RSI back under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum increasing again.