👀 Copy Legendary Investors' Portfolios in One ClickCopy For Free

The morning catch up: Flat markets ahead of central bank meetings and oil based inflation fears

Published 19/09/2023, 09:40 am
© Reuters.  The morning catch up: Flat markets ahead of central bank meetings and oil based inflation fears
EUR/USD
-
GBP/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
AUD/USD
-
UK100
-
US500
-
DJI
-
AXJO
-
SOGN
-
AAPL
-
GC
-
HG
-
LCO
-
CL
-
TSLA
-
AXSO
-
AORD
-
AXAT
-
IXIC
-
FTEU3
-
MRNA
-

The ASX was dragged down by the tech sector (-2.7%) yesterday after a broad sell-off of tech shares.

All 11 ASX sectors ended the day in the red and the ASX/S&P 200 closed 0.7%, or 49 points, lower at 7,229.2. The All Ordinaries also fell 0.7%.

Today doesn’t look to be much better.

ASX 200 futures are trading 21 points lower, down -0.29% as of 8:20 am AEST.

Over in the US, major benchmarks were flat ahead of the country’s central bank meeting.

It is likely the US Fed will hold rates, however spiking oil prices are having an impact on inflation.

What happened overnight?

Here’s what we saw (source Commsec):

US markets

Edged higher on Monday in a choppy session, with few catalysts and little conviction heading into the US Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting.

Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped 3.3% as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:NYSE:GS) lowered its earnings estimates for the electric vehicle giant. Ford shares slid 2.1% as the United Auto Workers strike continued.

Shares of pharmaceutical company Moderna lost 9.1%, making it the biggest decliner in the S&P 500 index. Co-founder and board chairman Noubar Afeyan sold 15,000 shares for around US$1.64 million. But Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) climbed 1.7% after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:NYSE:MS) both gave optimistic outlooks for new iPhone demand.

  • The Dow Jones index rose by 6 points or less than 0.1%.
  • The S&P 500 index gained 0.1%.
  • The Nasdaq index rose by 2 points or less than 0.1%.
European markets

Fell on Monday in a broad risk-off move ahead of policy meetings by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this week amid worries that interest rates will remain higher for longer than previously expected.

All index sectors traded in the red except for telecommunications stocks, which were flat.

Shares of Societe Generale (EPA:SOGN) dropped 12.1%, the most since March 2020, after the bank’s new strategic plan disappointed investors. Nordic Semiconductor shares slipped 10% after the chipmaker reduced quarterly revenue and margin forecasts.

  • The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index fell by 1%.
  • In London, the UK FTSE 100 index slid 0.8%, led by a 6.1% fall in the automobiles and parts index.
Currencies

Were mixed against the US dollar in European and US trade.

  • The Euro rose from US$1.0654 to US$1.0697 and was near US$1.0690 at the US close.
  • The Aussie dollar fell from US64.47 cents to US64.16 cents and was near US64.35 cents at the US close.
  • The Japanese yen dipped from 147.55 yen per US dollar to JPY147.75 and was near JPY147.60 at the US close.
Commodities

Global oil prices rose to 10-month highs on Monday as traders weighed concerns about demand against expectations of a supply deficit stemming from Saudi Arabia and Russia's extended output cuts.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, said "the jury is still out" on China oil consumption, while Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) revised lower its estimate for 2030 demand.

  • The Brent crude price rose by US50 cents or 0.5% to US$94.43 a barrel.
  • The US Nymex crude price gained US71 cents or 0.8% to US$91.48 a barrel.
Base metal prices were mixed on Monday.

  • The copper futures price slid 0.6% as inventories in exchange warehouses climbed. Stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses, at 147,575 tonnes, have climbed more than 170% since the middle of July. The aluminium futures price gained 1.6%.
  • The gold futures price rose by US$7.20 or 0.4% to US$1,953.40 an ounce. Spot gold was trading near US$1,933 an ounce at the US close.
  • Iron ore futures rose by US91 cents or 0.8% to near five-month highs of US$122.20 a tonne as investors continued to monitor Chinese demand for steel.
Rising oil prices fuel inflation fears

Fuel prices are surging. Drive past a petrol station in Victoria and you’re looking at prices between $2.04 and $2.29 per litre.

Average petrol and diesel prices are at their highest levels since the initial impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Major oil-producing countries are being accused of deliberately cutting back on output to generate higher prices, putting profit ahead of economic reason.

Commsec economist Ryan Felsman said the surge would lead to an "inflationary pulse" that washed through the Australian economy.

"Certainly petrol prices flow through to higher headline inflation," Felsman said.

"So, that's where the pain point for the Reserve Bank is going to be and a lot of the central banks."

Felsman said interest rates could rise if the oil price shock lasted long enough and was pushed by other inflationary pressures including China’s economic woes.

"China is the biggest importer of oil globally," Felsman said.

"And the economy, particularly the property sector and the malaise it's in at the moment, certainly may be a weight on demand for oil going forward.

"Really, in the near term we're expecting to see petrol prices remain around these levels, around $2.20 to $2.30 a litre, and that is not going to improve any time soon.

"Unfortunately, it looks like we're in for a period of higher petrol prices, at least for the next month or so."

Crude oil prices are currently hovering above $US90 a barrel, but could go higher if OPEC+ countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts by more than a million barrels a day until the end of the year.

The group controls up to 40% of the world’s oil.

"They have the instrument called supply cuts, which they can any time bring to the market and increase the oil price," Mukesh Sahdev, the head of oil trading and research analysis at Rystad Energy said.

"In simple language, they want the oil price to be up, they want to generate higher revenues and they have the instrument to do it," he said.

Hans Lee of Market Index reported this morning that: “Oil prices have made an almost vertical move from July lows of US$67 to a now 10-month high of US$92. A combination of production cuts, increasing demand and a steady slide in inventories in the US have all created the perfect storm for traders.

"The impact is already being felt with a range of companies handing down re-jigged earnings guidances.”

Businesses are feeling the pinch. Households are feeling the pinch. Central Banks are monitoring the situation closely and even Joe Biden’s re-election campaign could be affected.

OPEC+ may be laughing, but inflation fears are once again mounting.

On the small cap front

The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) dropped 1.27% yesterday to 2,775.30.

It has been a steady morning for news flow and you can read about the following and more throughout the day.

  • The board of Ionic Rare Earths Ltd (ASX:IXR, OTC:IXRRF) has appointed DRA Global Ltd to support project delivery at its 60% owned Makuutu Heavy Rare Earths Project in Uganda.
  • Alto Metals Ltd (ASX:AME) updated the market on its ongoing targeting work over the Sandstone Gold Project, with a review of the historic Bull Oak Gold Mine and surrounding historical workings highlighting considerable resource growth potential.
  • Carnavale Resources Ltd (ASX:CAV) announced that it has completed an initial leach test work program to provide information on potential gold recoveries at the McTavish East Prospect within the Kookynie Gold Project. Samples were taken from aircore drilling completed in September 2022 and RC drilling completed in May 2023 that identified high-grade gold shoots at the project.
  • Magmatic Resources Ltd (ASX:MAG) confirmed the commencement of further focused drilling at its 100% owned Myall Project, located approximately 60 kilometres north along strike of the Northparkes Mine (China Molybdenum/Sumitomo).
  • Stellar Resources Ltd (ASX:SRZ) provided partial assay results from its recently completed maiden drill hole (NSD005) at the North Scamander Project in NE Tasmania.
  • Read more on Proactive Investors AU

    Disclaimer

    Latest comments

    Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
    Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
    Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
    It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
    Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
    © 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.