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LIVE MARKETS-European miners get a cold from a Chinese PPI sneeze

Published 09/11/2018, 11:30 pm
Updated 09/11/2018, 11:41 pm
LIVE MARKETS-European miners get a cold from a Chinese PPI sneeze
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* STOXX down 0.8 pct, STOXX50E down 1 pct

* Fed statement hits equities

* Thyssenkrupp (DE:TKAG) sinks 9 pct after profit warning

* Richemont warns of volatile demand as profit falls Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: julien.ponthus.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

EUROPEAN MINERS GET A COLD FROM A CHINESE PPI SNEEZE (1230 GMT)

What if today's stock market stumble is actually not about the Fed's arguably hawkish tone but about the threat a Chinese slowdown poses to Europe Inc?

The Basic Resources .SXPP sector is strongly weighing on European bourses, particularly on London's FTSE 100, with a 3 percent fall - its worst in a month.

"The mining sector has suffered in the wake of yet another deterioration in Chinese PPI inflation, providing yet another worrying sign for domestic demand and manufacturing activity," writes IG's Josh Mahony.

China's producer price index (PPI) rose 3.3 percent in October from a year earlier, slowing from the previous month's increase of 3.6 percent. are continued concerns that China is slowing down, and this is driving the sell-off in natural resources," says David Madden at CMC Markets noting the falls of BHP Billiton (LON:BLT), Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) and Glencore (LON:GLEN) as copper, platinum and palladium prices decline.

Today's worries for miners strike a familiar note with the recent woes of luxury stocks also identified as a clear proxy on Chinese growth.

Below, the tainted-red sector:

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

ALL EYES ON THE G20 (1155 GMT)

No pressure, but everything - at least in stock markets - hangs on the G20 meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, BAML strategists say.

The G20 meeting in Buenos Aires will take place on Nov 30 and Dec 1, and sees the U.S. and Chinese leaders meeting for further trade talks.

"How long and how far (the) recovery goes is still ultimately dependent, in our view, on the outcome of the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20," BAML writes in a global cross-asset strategy note.

Trade war has been a key driver of October's sell-off and this meeting is crucial.

"Progress and we think risk on continues, failure and risk off would likely resume," the strategists say.

How to play this? The biggest winner from trade progress would be Emerging Asia, they reckon, and they stay long EM generally as well as long U.S. equities. The strategy team switches a long FTSE trade into a long Japanese stocks, arguing a Brexit deal is better expressed through the currency and Japanese macro looks better.

You can see below in this chart, courtesy of Pictet Asset Management, the sharp fall in Chinese car sales and exports which has pressured global economic growth:

(Helen Reid)

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GERMANY THE SICK MAN OF EUROPE? (1040 GMT)

German equities have underperformed substantially this year. The DAX's 12-month decline of 13.9 percent is second only to Italy's, as the German market's heavy exposure to China - roiled by the trade war and slowdown in the world's 2nd largest economy - and to growth-sensitive industrial sectors have taken their toll.

Germany is among the most cyclical countries in Europe - with cyclical sectors, such as autos, accounting for more than 40 percent of German market cap, compared to less than 30 percent for the rest of Europe, Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) strategists note.

Where next for the DAX?

Well, a positive turn for euro area PMI momentum, which DB strategists forecast, would help Germany's performance. But they reckon this boost would be "more than offset" by their China economists' prediction of a further decline in the yuan.

"Taken together these projections imply a further 3 percent German underperformance over the coming months, leaving us underweight," DB concludes.

Chinese data earlier today showing automobile sales fell almost 12 percent in October only serves to reinforce this downbeat assessment. Reid)

*****

OPENING SNAPSHOT: WELL, THAT DIDN'T LAST LONG (0837 GMT)

It's a sea of red this morning, with major European indexes all down more than 0.5 percent in early dealings as the Fed's statement on the world's largest economy and its plans to hike rates next month brought the post-midterm election rally to a grinding halt.

Investors are punishing ThyssenKrupp and Richemont in particular for their results, with the latter pulling the luxury goods makers Swatch and Kering (PA:PRTP) with it.

Here are the main movers by index and stocks at 0828 GMT:

(Josephine Mason)

*****

ON THE RADAR AT THE OPEN: NOT MUCH OF A MIDTERM RALLY (0750 GMT)

The Fed seems to have killed what was left of the post midterm rally with its worrying line about a dip in business investment and its apparent determination to carry out a rate hike in December.

Some investors had hoped that “Red October” might have encouraged the Fed to back off a bit and perhaps open the door for an implicit “Powell Put”, but that really seems off the cards right now.

Anyhow, the Fed's statement didn't go well on Wall Street and didn't do better in Asia where stocks pulled back from a one-month high.

In Europe, futures have opened in negative territory but there's a big enough batch of earnings to animate the session. There's also UK GDP data at 0930 GMT.

After positive results yesterday in the banking sector, Allianz (DE:ALVG) has announced a 24 percent jump in net profit. Its shares are up in early Frankfurt trade, while Richemont are down almost 3 percent after their results. Less rosy headline for UBS, sued in the US in an alleged crisis-era mortgage securities fraud.

In the UK utilities sector, energy supplier SSE (LON:SSE) and Innogy are discussing changes to the terms of a planned tie-up of their British retail units, after Britain's regulator proposed a price cap on default energy bills.

In Germany, Thyssenkrupp cut its profit outlook for the second time this year, blaming provisions for an ongoing steel cartel probe and quality issues at its automotive unit, the latest in a string of bad news for the crisis-ridden group. Its shares are down 2 percent in early Frankfurt trade.

Carmakers will be in focus after Chinese data showed automobile sales went into reverse last month, dragging year-to-date sales growth into negative territory for the first time. is a roundup of interesting headlines this morning:

U.S. to restrict e-cigarette flavors to fight teenage vaping "epidemic" Q3 net profit jumps 24 pct; confirms 2018 outlook by Asian dominance, Germany pours cash into EV battery ventures sues UBS, alleges crisis-era mortgage securities fraud profit warning exposes flaw in Thyssenkrupp spin-off logic says lower solvency ratio due to rise in government bond spread S8N1X5009

Richemont highlights volatile consumer demand as net profit falls Angelini among final bidders for $1 bln Bristol-Myers' UPSA unit - sources for Alitalia to be examined next week - source Innogy in talks to change terms of British retail energy tie-up Intermobiliare 9-Mth Net Loss Widens To EUR 115.7 Mln Swiss CEO Gisel to leave bank - Swiss newspaper Blick Acquires 108 PRS Build To Rent Homes In Tottenham posts 3.9 pct revenue growth through Oct this year Group Acquires Amimon Inc Tibnor to buy Danish Sanistal's steel distribution business ASP0002DX

DUP warns May: no Brexit deal that separates Northern Ireland from UK says discussions with investors, creditors continuing HY Revenue $182.4 Mln Vs $161.4 Mln car market hits reverse as sales slide again regulators to approve Karstadt-Kaufhof merger -sources L8N1XK12J

(Julien Ponthus and Josephine Mason)

*****

EUROPEAN FUTURES DIP (0708 GMT)

European futures just opened and there's not much of a surprise there: they are down between roughly 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

MORNING CALL: EUROPE SEEN LOWER AS FED WEIGHS ON MIDTERM RALLY (0634 GMT)

European shares are expected to open in the red and follow the trend set on Wall Street overnight after a statement from the Fed weighed further on to sap the rally which followed the midterm elections.

The central bank noted a dip in business investment but the statement otherwise suggested the next rate hike would be in December, disappointing those who had hoped for a change in tone after October's market sell-off.

With Asia also in the red, financial spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 33 points lower, Frankfurt's DAX to lose 19 points and Paris' CAC 40 5 points down.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ju

https://tmsnrt.rs/2QvAge7 Indices

https://tmsnrt.rs/2Pit3Bj Stocks

https://tmsnrt.rs/2Pj14l6 Germany and Italy laggards

https://tmsnrt.rs/2PhdKce China exports chart Pictet

https://tmsnrt.rs/2PhjCC8 basic

https://tmsnrt.rs/2PnG8JF

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