Originally published by AxiTrader
The afternoon rally in Asian stock markets yesterday filtered in European markets and set the scene for a positive mood in US markets overnight. That was despite the weakness in metals we'd seen in Chinese metals markets.
That positive move was such that even when the news broke the DPRK had launched another missile, and when the news filtered out of the reach of that missile, the reaction in US stocks, and in USD/JPY was extremely benign. Indeed gold barely budged on the news.
That's telling about how traders views of the North Korean situation have changed in recent months. And it's a testament to the steel hand in a velvet glove style approach the Trump administration is taking toward North Korea's inflammatory tactics. But the unresolved question is whether the apparent fact this missile could hit much of the USA is a game changer for President Trump and his military advisers.
Anyway, as we kick off in Asia the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney is already up 0.66%, the KOSPI in Korea is 0.39% higher, the Straits Times index in Singapore is up 0.17% and indications are the China A50 futures are likely to open higher again this morning.
And as the chart below shows the A50 index pulled up at the 20 day moving average around which the Bollinger Bands rest.
So the outlook remains a little bearish but a break of this level is needed to open up the downside toward the bottom of the range channel. But the fact that the Hang Seng and Kospi - check out the Kospi chart with the candle from two days back - also bounced suggests a solid day ahead for Asia's currencies.
Forex markets have also been volatile with the positive outlook of USD/KRW yesterday turning in the other direction as it became apparent - via a Reuters survey - that traders are expecting a BoK rate hike at tomorrow's meeting.
With the prospect of US tax cuts being passed by the Senate this week even if the BoK does move I'm not convinced that yesterday's move wasn't a false break lower and may indeed be the low. You can see what I mean on the chart below and my stop loss is pretty clear as well.
As I highlighted yesterday, USD/SGD looks like it is building a base and the USD/THB has shown its first up day in almost a month. AsiaForex might be about to turn.
We'll see. The vote on the Senate floor and tonight's Q3 GDP read in the US and the accompanying PCE readings are going to be very important.
Have a great day's trading.