Market Overview

The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...

Last week, the Fed vice chair for supervision, Michael Barr, announced that the regulator had cut a proposed increase to capital requirements for the largest US banks by more than half. According to...

US economic activity remains on track to post a softer but still-solid growth rate in next month’s official GDP report for the third quarter. The analysis is based on the median estimate from several...

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market melt-up, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks...

Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims fell and two regional business surveys strengthened in September, while the...

Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs that...

The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...

With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut rates for the second time this year, following its initial cut in June. The Deposit Facility Rate, which determines the interest banks earn...

This week will feature critical central bank meetings, with the Fed on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. While the Fed will capture most of the focus in the...

Be prepared for this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Here are 4 ways to trade the upcoming interest rate cut 

The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is...

The financial markets have been expecting more cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) than Eric and I have all year so far. At the start of this year, the markets anticipated six to seven rate cuts in...

Today’s revised estimate of US economic activity for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report continues to point to a slower-but-still-solid growth rate, based on the median nowcast for several...