Market Overview

Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very...

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to...

We have written many articles and commentaries forecasting interest rates. The analysis has used prior and current inflation and economic activity. Additionally, we have looked at market data on...

The highly anticipated U.S. August CPI report comes out on Wednesday morning. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.5% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.2%. The CPI print could potentially...

Stocks rose for the second day in a row, but other indicators painted a different picture despite the gains. Oil prices fell, the Japanese yen strengthened, credit spreads widened, and the broader...

Tomorrow’s update on US consumer inflation for August isn’t expected to derail expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, but the disinflation trend of late looks set to...

The yield curve's longest inversion in history ended recently. Despite many predictions, a recession did not follow the inversion. This captures a valuable lesson for investors. For less than $9 a...

European and US stock futures are trading mixed, while investors are paying close attention to economic numbers from China and Europe. Over in Europe, we saw the German Final CPI m/m number matching...

Last week's decline hints at a growing unease among market participants. With the labor market softening further, is the Fed too late on rate cuts? The S&P 500’s recent struggles signal cautious...

The macro evidence suggests we are at a major turning point. It’s the sort of thing that could precipitate a reversal in the relative performance of commodities versus stocks. On its own, the stock...

Recessions don’t happen very often, and they don’t last very long. Most of the nine recessions since 1960 were caused by the tightening of monetary policy, which triggered a financial crisis and a...

This week all eyes will turn to prices, with the CPI report on Wednesday, the PPI report on Thursday, and import/export prices on Friday. Analysts expect the CPI report to show a 0.2%...

This past week, I heard an interview with President Trump, during which he postulated that “this country will go into a depression if she wins the presidency.”  Now, believe me, I am no fan of...

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than...