Market Overview

Macro clouds remain on the horizon. Wherever you look at, you see unsustainable economic models: we are either relying on debt-fueled growth (US), trying to squeeze exhausted growth models (China),...

Yes, that has been our advice since mid-August. Our August 19, 2024 Morning Briefing was titled, "Get Ready To Short Bonds?" We wrote: "Bond investors may be expecting too many interest-rate cuts...

The bull market celebrates its two-year milestone, maintaining strong growth. Investors watch closely to see if the rally aligns with historical bull market patterns. Sustained market momentum...

The market environment has changed dramatically from that which defined the past two decades. Interest rates are significantly higher which should bring equity valuations down though that is not the...

In times of disaster and destruction, a common narrative often emerges that rebuilding efforts will lead to economic growth. The idea that repairing damage and replacing destroyed goods creates jobs...

Recent economic data has lifted CapitalSpectator.com’s median growth estimate for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. Using a variety of sources to generate a median nowcast, today’s revision...

The luxury of labour hoarding is coming to an end in the eurozone as corporate profits dwindle. And that’s going to mean wage growth will ease, unemployment will tick up and we’ll see more...

The US economy continues to defy the recession forecasts that received much attention in the summer. The primary drivers of economic resilience: strong growth in payrolls and consumer spending. By...

Pagliacci (Clowns, 1892) is an opera in a prologue and two acts with music and libretto by Ruggero Leoncavallo. The play tells the tragedy of a jealous husband and his wife in a commedia dell'arte...

Corporate insiders are about as bearish on the future prospects of earnings and stock prices as ever before. And there is plenty of evidence suggesting inflation remains sticky. Certainly, it’s...

Companies aren’t so worried that they’re letting a lot of people go, but they’re also not so confident that they’re hiring a lot of people. This post, an excerpt from my new Bloomberg Opinion piece,...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts,...

The CPI report came in hotter than expected for the headline and core CPI metrics. CPI swap pricing did a good job of predicting the headline inflation rate. As a result, yesterday’s report has led...

First, a review: last month, August’s report missed higher. But the miss was mostly due to the quirky jump in Owners’ Equivalent Rent. Outside of that, CPI had been okay – not great, but moving in...