Market Overview

Stocks edged higher last week, with the S&P 500 hitting multiple record highs as investors welcomed signs of easing inflation alongside steady economic growth. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on...

On Tuesday, China announced a raft of policies aimed at boosting the economy and encouraging consumption. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%. The...

An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trump’s policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced...

With the US presidential elections just a few weeks away, we take a look at the economic and social program of the Democratic candidate for the White House. Following the interest rate cut announced...

Markets are highly confident that the Federal Reserve will announce another cut in interest rates at the next policy meeting on Nov. 7, two days after the election. The uncertainty is whether the cut...

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys...

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary...

I reviewed the spread on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) yesterday. The white bars represent yesterday’s data, and the comparison is against the 180-day historical average. The spreads are...

As the Fed pivot starts with a 50-basis-point slash, the bond market expects more to come, and gold should benefit. Meanwhile, the risk of a second inflationary wave isn’t dismissed, and the Nasdaq...

So far, September isn't living up to its bad reputation for the stock market now that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are at record highs. At the start of the month, on September 2, we asked, "What...

From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I...

The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation. The media pounded and pounded the yield curve’s inversion as a signal about an imminent economic...

As I have noted here for the past few months, the narrative surrounding generative AI has shifted dramatically. This is starting to lead to a shift in estimates of the major players’ potential...

This week will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data. The main events are Treasury auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes, scheduled around 1 PM Tuesday, Wednesday, and...