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Week in review: ASX rallies; New Zealand enters a technical recession; European central bank hikes rates

Published 16/06/2023, 02:11 pm
© Reuters.  Week in review: ASX rallies; New Zealand enters a technical recession; European central bank hikes rates

Trading was brisk today on the local bourse, with the ASX 200 up 38.30 points or 0.53% to 7,213.60 and crossing above its 20-day moving average at the half-way point in the day’s trade.

Over the last five days, the index has gained 1.28% and is currently 4.68% off its 52-week high.

All sectors were up today – Utilities (2.49%), Energy (2.06%) and Information Technology (1.72%) were the best performers, with Health Care straggling at 0.04%.

Energy giant AGL was riding high after it announced a massive profit upgrade.

Close to midday, we saw the following snapshot across the board:

  • On Wall St: Dow +1.2%, S&P 500 +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.1%
  • In Europe: Stoxx50 -0.1%, FTSE +0.3%, DAX -0.1%
  • Australian dollar: flat at 68.83 US cents
  • Spot gold: -0.01% at $US1,970.80/ounce
  • Brent crude: Unchanged at $US75.67/barrel
  • Iron ore: +0.8% to $US113.30 a tonne
  • Bitcoin: +2.1% at $US25,639

NZ enters a technical recession

Elsewhere in the world, New Zealand has now officially entered dictionary-definition recession territory. Our neighbour’s most recent economic data shows that the economy has contracted over two consecutive quarters.

Retail spending across New Zealand is down, and indicators show private consumption generally has been falling in recent months, while NZ's business credit defaults are up 13% since last year.

Stats NZ recently released the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, showing a continuation of the economic trend observed since December.

New Zealand's GDP had declined by 0.7% by the end of last year, and in the first quarter of this year, it experienced a further 0.1% decrease.

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Although this figure may appear small, additional indicators suggest that New Zealand is entering a period of prolonged economic contraction, likely extending beyond six months.

NZ last faced a ‘technical’ recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth – during the pandemic, but that was obviously different, with harsh lockdowns in place and the border closed.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) acknowledged the deliberate policy-induced slowdown in New Zealand's economy following a robust post-pandemic recovery.

The difference now is that households and businesses face financial hardship without the COVID-19 narrative to explain the situation.

The focus is now on managing the slowdown while considering measures to support households and stimulate economic growth in the future.

And across the ditch, the hope is that Australia isn’t going to follow shortly behind.

European rates hiked again

In Europe, the Central Bank seemed wholly unconcerned about the risk of recession in the bloc of 20 countries, and unbothered by the Fed’s decision to pause rates in the US, raising interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday and flagging more pain on the horizon.

This marks the eighth consecutive rise and takes the benchmark rate in the Euro zone to 3.5%, a 22-year record.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said another rate hike in July was “very likely,” while the ECB said in a statement: “Inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long.”

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