The local market is poised to open lower this morning — the ASX 200 futures are down 0.4% at 8,312 points.
November retail sales figures due out late this morning are expected to show a slight rise due to Black Friday sales. But the expected 1.2% monthly lift would be smaller than in previous years.
Following yesterday's CPI release, economists are now more optimistic about the prospects of a February rate cut.
CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun said, "Recent very low unemployment data and today’s increase in job vacancies certainly complicate the February decision as they suggest the labour market remains considerably tighter than pre-COVID times.
“However, to me, the board has shown a preference for the maintenance of low unemployment over lowering inflation in recent times, so a first rate reduction in February remains a reasonable possibility depending on the Q4 CPI outcome and December unemployment and November retail sales data."
International markets
US share markets were mixed overnight — the Dow Jones index ended up by 0.25%, the S&P 500 index gained 0.16%, while the Nasdaq closed flat. US markets are closed on Thursday to mark the death of former US President Jimmy Carter.
This came after two conflicting sets of US jobs data were released. Sentiment was also dampened after CNN reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to push through new tariffs.
Equities barely budged after the Fed’s December meeting minutes showed officials deciding to move more slowly in the months ahead amid elevated inflation risks.
European markets ended little changed on Wednesday. Retail stocks slid 1.8% while healthcare stocks rose 0.8%.
- The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index dipped 0.1%.
- In London, the UK FTSE 100 index inched up 0.1%.
Thirty-year British government gilt yields rose 13 points to their highest level since August 1998 at 5.383%. The move reflected reduced expectations of Bank of England interest rate cuts, extra borrowing in the new government's October 30 budget and higher US Treasury yields.
Currencies
Currencies were weaker against the US dollar in European and US trade.
- The Euro fell from US$1.0357 to US$1.0275 and was near US$1.0310 in late US trade.
- The Aussie dollar dipped from US62.35 cents to US61.86 cents and was near US62.10 cents in late US trade.
- The Japanese yen slid from 157.92 yen per US dollar to JPY158.54 and was near JPY158.45 in late US trade.
Commodities
Global oil prices slipped as a stronger US dollar and large builds in US fuel inventories last week pressured prices. Gasoline stocks rose by 6.3m bbl last week to 237.7m bbl, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel build.
- Brent crude fell 1.2% to US$76.16/bbl.
- US Nymex crude shed 1.3% to $US73.32/bbl.
Base metal prices were mixed on Wednesday.
- Copper futures rose 1.6%.
- Aluminium futures slid 1.0%.
The gold futures price rose 0.3% to $US2,672.40/oz. Spot gold was trading near $US2,657/oz in late US trade.
Iron ore futures dipped 0.1% to $US97.74/tn, declining for a fourth straight session, weighed down by weakening steel demand and an increase in port arrival volumes in top consumer China.
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