(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Shanghai-April 09: 本文章英文原文最初于2020年4月7日发布于： https://app.fitchconnect.com/search/research/article/PR_10117057 Fitch Revises Rating Watch on ENN Ecological to Evolving 惠誉评级已将新奥生态控股股份有限公司（新奥股份）'BB'的长期发行人违约评级以及ENN Clean Energy International Investment Limited（ENN Clean Energy）发行的新奥股份票息率7.5%的5亿美元高级无抵押票据'BB'评级的评级观察状态从正面调整至发展中。新奥股份间接全资拥有ENN Clean Energy，并为上述美元计价票据提供担保。 惠誉继续预计新奥股份将完成向董事长王玉锁即新奥股份和新奥能源控股有限公司（新奥能源；BBB/稳定）的共同实控人及其夫人收购新奥能源32.80%的股份的拟议交易， 并预计将在交易完成后基于集团并表信用状况（远强于新奥股份目前的信用状况）评估新奥股份的评级。 但是，甲醇和其他大宗商品的价格下跌已导致新奥股份自身的信用指标走弱；而惠誉预计，在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下，未来12-24个月新奥股份信用指标的表现将继续弱于与其目 前'BB'评级相称的水平。若新奥股份未完成上述拟议交易（这并非惠誉的基准方案假设），则其'BB'的评级将面临下调压力，因此其评级观察状态为发展中。 关键评级驱动因素 收购交易有待审批：新奥股份已宣布将收购新奥集团国际投资有限公司（新奥国际）及精选投资控股有限公司持有的新奥能源32.80%的股份，标的资产作价258.4亿元人民 币。新奥股份计划用其全资子公司United Faith Ventures Limited持有的澳大利亚液化天然气公司Santos Limited的9.97%股份置换新奥国际持有的等值于70.9亿元人民币的新奥能源股份，而收购交易所需的剩余资金将通过55亿元人民币现金及发行13.41亿股新股 份（每股9.88元人民币，共计132.5亿元人民币）来筹集。新奥股份计划向最多35家投资者非公开发行至多2.46亿股新股份，以筹集55亿元现金代价的部分资金。 上述拟议交易已提请中国证券监督管理委员会（证监会）审批。新奥股份已回复证监会第一轮问询。即使新奥股份、Santos Limited及新奥能源的股价出现波动，拟议交易的估值仍将保持不变且有效直至2020年6月末。惠誉认为该交易有望在2020年完成。 独立信用状况走弱：惠誉预计，若拟议交易失败，新奥股份'BB'的评级将因新冠肺炎疫情的冲击及处于低位的大宗商品价格而显著承压。2019年新奥股份的营运现金流（FF O）调整后净杠杆率从2018年的4.0倍改善至3.4倍，这主要得益于强劲的股息收入；但鉴于石油和甲醇价格走弱，中期内上述情况不太可能持续。惠誉预计，新奥股份的甲 醇平均售价继在2019年平均下滑23%之后，将在2020年继续下滑11%，原因是油价大幅跳水且新冠肺炎疫情导致需求严重受挫。惠誉预计，2020年新奥股份的FFO 调整后净杠杆率将升至5.5倍，随后在2021年降至4.4倍。 中等或强的关联性：基于惠誉的《母子公司评级关联性》，若拟议交易完成，新奥股份与新奥能源的关联性可能为“中等”或更高，原因是这种关联性将随王先生通过持股新奥股份对 新奥能源进行有效控制及拟议交易完成后形成贯穿天然气价值链的协同效应而得到巩固。此外，新奥股份的建设工程业务将为新奥能源的天然气业务扩张及综合能源项目提供支持。因 此，惠誉可能基于集团并表状况对新奥股份进行评估。 合并后信用状况强劲：新奥能源的2019年业绩强劲，这令拟议交易完成后的预计并表信用状况强劲——尽管新奥股份存在周期性疲弱。得益于天然气销售稳健增长及综合能源和增 值业务的营收大幅增加，新奥能源的EBITDA增长20.8%至91亿元人民币。新奥能源的零售天然气销量在2019年增长了14.7%至199亿立方米，且在新冠肺炎疫 情下保持强韧——2020年前两个月仅下滑5%。 预计集团并表信用状况将得益于业务风险的下降，原因是源自新奥能源城市燃气项目的现金流表现稳定。大宗商品与防御性公用事业多元业务板块有助于合并后集团更好地应对周期性 波动——例如，甲醇价格随油价走弱导致新奥股份的盈利能力下降，但这将因新奥能源的购油成本下降而得到弥补。惠誉预计，假设不进行股份配售，2020年和2021年合并后 集团的FFO调整后净杠杆率将分别为3.0倍和2.7倍，这将支持集团并表信用状况达到接近新奥能源的评级水平。 评级推导摘要 新奥股份的评级受到业务多样性（作为新奥集团一员所获得运营层面的益处）及中等水平的财务状况的支持。该公司评级的制约因素在于其多变的业务状况及对业务风险较高的周期性 行业的风险敞口。惠誉预计，因大宗商品的价格暂时疲弱，2020年新奥股份的净杠杆率将升至5.5倍，2021年将为4.4倍。 新奥股份的评级通过与印度尼西亚的PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk（CAP，BB-/稳定）的比较分析得出——CAP的评级反映了其母公司PT Barito Pacific Tbk（B+/稳定）涵盖石化和能源行业的多元业务、其作为印尼最大石化产品生产商所占据的领先市场地位以及CAP地热能业务强劲的以往业绩（长期合同带来稳定的营收）。 CAP的杠杆率远低于新奥股份，但新奥股份较强劲的垂直整合、业务多元化程度以及因对Santos持股10.07%而具有较高的财务灵活性弥补了其杠杆率较高的短板。 关键评级假设 本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括： - 2020年甲醇平均售价同比下滑11%，2021年和2022年分别回升8%和5%； - 惠誉的秦皇岛煤炭价格预测：2020年、2021年及2022年分别为每吨74美元、79美元及78美元； - 2020年工程业务营收同比下滑5%，自2021年起温和增长； - 未来几年每年资本支出约为6.5亿-7.5亿元人民币 评级敏感性 可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动/上调评级的因素包括： - 若新奥股份按照拟议条款完成收购新奥能源的股份，则惠誉可能对新奥股份采取正面评级行动，并可能随后基于集团并表信用状况对新奥股份进行评估。 可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动/下调评级的因素包括： - 若新奥股份未完成收购新奥能源的股份，则惠誉将把新奥股份的评级移出“评级观察状态为发展中”名单；并且，若新奥股份的FFO调整后净杠杆率持续高于3.5倍，未来三年E BITDA利润率持续低于15%，或新奥股份的控股股东及其关联公司的融资能力或流动性状况恶化，则惠誉将对新奥股份采取负面评级行动。 最佳/最差情景评级分析 非金融企业发行人的评级在三年评级周期内最佳情景下的评级上调幅度 (定义为以正向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数，) 为三个子级，最差情景下的评级下调幅度 (定义为以负向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数，) 为四个子级。各评级类别最佳至最差情景的信用评级范围介于“AAA”到“D”之间。最佳和最差情景信用评级的评定基于历史表现。请访问https://www.fitch ratings.com/site/re/10111579，了解关于特定行业最佳和最差情景信用评级方法的详细信息。 流动性及债务结构 流动性充足：2019年末新奥股份的流动性充足，持有库存现金和现金等价物24亿元人民币以及尚未使用的授信额度42亿元人民币，足以覆盖其33亿元人民币的短期债务。此 外，新奥股份对Santos持股10.07%，这在需要时将提供额外的流动性缓冲。 惠誉认为，新奥股份为其2021年2月到期的5亿美元债券进行再融资的途径包括发行新的美元债券、支取银行授信额度、发行境内中期票据以及银行过桥贷款。 信息来源 评级分析中使用的主要信息来源在下文列载的《适用标准》中已有披露。 环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素 ESG问题因其性质或受企业管理的方式而对信用的影响为中性或仅对受评企业的信用状况产生极小影响。如需了解惠誉ESG相关度评分的更多信息，请访问www.fitchr atings.com/esg。 ENN Ecological Holdings Co., Ltd.; Long Term Issuer Default Rating; Rating Watch Revision; BB; RW: Evo ENN Clean Energy International Investment Limited ----senior unsecured; Long Term Rating; Rating Watch Revision; BB; RW: Evo Contacts: Primary Rating Analyst Michelle Leong, Director +852 2263 9611 Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited 19/F Man Yee Building 60-68 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Secondary Rating Analyst Wei Yu, Director +86 21 6898 7983 Committee Chairperson Ying Wang, Managing Director +86 21 6898 7980
Media Relations: Alanis Ko, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9953, Email: alanis.ko@thefitchgroup.com; Wai Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com. 详情参见www.fitchratings.com Applicable Criteria Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Mar 2020) (including rating assumption sensitivity) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111917 Corporates Notching and Recovery Ratings Criteria (pub. 14 Oct 2019) (including rating assumption sensitivity) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10090792 Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Feb 2020) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111386 Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage (pub. 27 Sep 2019) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10089196 Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10117902#solicitation Endorsement Status https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10117902#endorsement_status Endorsement Policy https://www.fitchratings.com/regulatory ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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