(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): How a Severe China Slowdown Could Affect APAC Corporates https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10075047 Fitch Ratings-Sydney/Hong Kong-June 03: 本文章英文原文最初于2019年5月30日发布于：Fitch Ratings: APAC Basic Materials, Oil & Gas Most Vulnerable to Severe China Slowdown /a 惠誉评级在新近发布的一份报告中指出，如果中国经济增速严重放缓，亚太地区的基础材料和石油与天然气（油气）行业公司将受到最大的冲击，其次为来自住宅建筑、工业和科技行 业的公司。在中国经济增速严重放缓情境下, 亚太地区共有分别来自不同国家/地区92家评级为'B+'以上的发行人，可能面临发行人违约评级或独立信用状况评级的下行压力（如果是政府相关企业）。 中美贸易紧张局势升级凸显出旷日持久的争端给中国经济增长带来的风险。惠誉对中国经济增速放缓的假设首先是，美国如再对约3,000亿美元的中国进口商品加征关税则将引发 中国经济的收缩。其次，惠誉假设关税影响被另一轮投资冲击大幅放大，即在企业需要缓解资产负债表压力及在需求疲弱之际保持流动性的现状下，投资活动被大幅削减。这种情况下 （并非惠誉的基准情景），中国的GDP增长率将在2019-2021年降至平均4.1%，而惠誉的基准情景为6.0%。 基础材料和油气行业将面临最大压力，因为经济放缓将导致大宗商品需求疲软，价格下跌将紧随其后。大宗商品多元化程度较低的公司或油气行业垂直整合度较低的公司受压程度更高 。由于包括澳大利亚和印度尼西亚在内的多个亚太经济体都与中国有着密切的大宗商品贸易联系，因此，受影响的公司不会仅限于总部设在中国的公司。 信贷紧缩、收入不确定性和房价下跌预期可能导致住房需求下降，因而经济放缓将影响到大部分中资房企，尽管惠誉认为政府仍有空间对该行业采取一些宽松的政策。除了那些拥有高 质量租金收入、低杠杆率和多元化融资渠道的公司外，大多数中资房企将面临评级下调压力。 印度尼西亚很容易受到外部冲击的影响，尽管住宅建筑是一项本地业务，但惠誉认为大宗商品价格下跌的连带性影响将削弱消费者情绪和房地产需求。不过，惠誉授予评级的印度尼西 亚房企多拥有大规模和多元化的投资物业组合，可能能够经受住这场风暴的考验。 中国的重型设备和机械制造商将面临极具挑战性的需求环境，受影响最大的行业将是采矿业和建筑业。中国消费需求的萎缩可能会令亚太地区的消费电子产品科技公司的营收承压。通 常情况下，增长放缓的连锁效应会对消费电子产品产生巨大影响，因为这些产品大多为非必需消费品。 该最新分析基于惠誉对233家评级在'B+'以上的亚太地区公司投资组合的行业和发行人风险评分，其评分介于'1'（无影响）到'5'（显著影响）之间。惠誉观察到，如果 经济增速放缓，92家发行人的发行人违约评级或独立信用状况评级最有可能面临下行压力，其中78家发行人属于投资级，67家来自大中华区。 请点击www.fitchratings.com 或文首链接阅读相关报告： How a Severe China Slowdown Could Affect APAC Corporates /a
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