ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Risk assets have been helped over the weekend by news that a group of moderate Democratic senators is softening their stance on the US government shutdown. There is still a long way to go here, but we...

The diggers have already demolished parts of the White House’s East Wing to create Donald Trump’s new ballroom. Could the Supreme Court do the same for his tariffs? Betting markets think...

The government shutdown has clearly caused anxiety for people on food stamps and government workers who aren’t being paid. But job fears are also mounting, which is raising concerns about...

It has been a mixed week for the US dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still...

In the Eurozone, ECB’s Schnabel sees money market rates rising as system reserves decline, with banks then turning to the ECB for liquidity. It is part of the plan and could happen in mid-2026,...

Tech-fuelled growth attracts the headlines, but headwinds from the government shutdown are becoming more apparent as consumer confidence continues to slide. The absence of official data is clouding...

It was barely six weeks ago that EUR/USD briefly traded over 1.19. However, seemingly strong activity data from the US, combined with a Federal Reserve less committed to easing, has seen it correct to...

Despite positive real wage growth and some recovery in consumer confidence, the eurozone’s shopping streets are yet to benefit. Retail sales declined in both August and September by 0.1%...

We’re far from being out of the woods yet - that’s the clear message from ING’s Carsten Brzeski as he assesses the state of the global economy. There are signs of optimism, he says,...

Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwindsEnergy – TTF Fund...

Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the US dollar has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further US dollar pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate...

Repo has tightened, the effective funds rate has risen, and the Fed has reacted with a promise to buy T-bills. So far, heavier bills issuance has crowded out Repo longs. Ahead, expect a bigger shift...

Today marks the start of the US Supreme Court hearings regarding the legality of some of the US administration’s tariffs. A ruling is expected before the end of the yearBack in May, a US federal...

The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some...

Large parts of the commodities complex came under pressure yesterday as part of a broader risk-off move across global marketsEnergy – US Crude Oil Stocks RiseThe oil market came under pressure...

Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10-year seems content at above 4% for now. The 2-year has more open road to trek back down to...