ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Our assumption in December was that a US-Canada trade war could take USD/CAD to 1.50. That is now a clear possibility. The two key factors for FX are how long US tariffs will stay in place and the...

The Trump administration has surprised FX markets by imposing large tariffs earlier than expected. The US dollar has strengthened sharply on the back of lower global growth expectations and...

Oil prices have rallied on the back of US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, while metal and agri commodities have come under pressure Energy – Tariffs on Canadian Energy...

The standoff between Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve is intensifying. The Fed kept rates on hold this month, much to the US President's displeasure. Our James Knightley looks at where the...

CAD and MXN tumbled yesterday as Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on both countries by tomorrow. Whether he delivers on this threat will determine price action for the broader FX...

European gas prices have jumped to their highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, aluminium rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian...

It's a busy day ahead in FX markets. The highlight should be another 25bp cut from the ECB, but we'll get plenty of fourth-quarter GDP data from the US and Europe. Elsewhere, we think this week's...

Robust activity, a solid jobs market and sticky inflation justify the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. The hawkish tilt from officials may in part be a message to President Trump that...

The EU plans to ban Russian aluminium imports as part of a sanctions package ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Energy – Crude Oil Steady Crude oil prices steadied...

The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...

The Nasdaq 100 witnessed its largest one-day fall since 2022 after the DeepSeek correction extended much further on Monday. Potentially, this technology could be a game-changer, and questions are...

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...

Commodity markets were unable to escape the sell-off that was seen in equities, while the threat of tariffs will not be helping sentiment Energy – Unable to Escape Risk-off Move Oil prices came under...

The US dollar has so far retraced about a quarter of its 10% run-up from late September. That has largely been a function of investors reducing the tariff risk premium embedded into the currencies of...

Tariff developments over the weekend have led to a stronger dollar this morning and weighed on large parts of the commodities complex Energy – Tanker Rates Ease Oil prices saw their first weekly...

The Bank of Japan delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but surprised markets on the hawkish side by materially raising its inflation forecasts. We expect two more hikes this year which can pave...