ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We observe that key China proxies like AUD have erased their risk premium on the back of a consensus view that Beijing will secure a deal with the US and prevent an escalation in trade tensions. We...

It was a session of two halves for oil yesterday with prices initially weaker on the back of China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US. However, a tougher US stance on Iran saw the market claw back...

Markets are readjusting after Trump’s last-minute deals with Mexico and Canada which delayed tariffs by a month. From now on, markets may well handle tariff threats even more cautiously, but a new...

Oil markets are seeing a correction after Canada and Mexico came to a last-minute deal with the US, which will see tariffs postponed by at least a month Energy – No Change to OPEC+ Output Policy The...

Our assumption in December was that a US-Canada trade war could take USD/CAD to 1.50. That is now a clear possibility. The two key factors for FX are how long US tariffs will stay in place and the...

The Trump administration has surprised FX markets by imposing large tariffs earlier than expected. The US dollar has strengthened sharply on the back of lower global growth expectations and...

Oil prices have rallied on the back of US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, while metal and agri commodities have come under pressure Energy – Tariffs on Canadian Energy...

The standoff between Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve is intensifying. The Fed kept rates on hold this month, much to the US President's displeasure. Our James Knightley looks at where the...

CAD and MXN tumbled yesterday as Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on both countries by tomorrow. Whether he delivers on this threat will determine price action for the broader FX...

European gas prices have jumped to their highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, aluminium rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian...

It's a busy day ahead in FX markets. The highlight should be another 25bp cut from the ECB, but we'll get plenty of fourth-quarter GDP data from the US and Europe. Elsewhere, we think this week's...

Robust activity, a solid jobs market and sticky inflation justify the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. The hawkish tilt from officials may in part be a message to President Trump that...

The EU plans to ban Russian aluminium imports as part of a sanctions package ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Energy – Crude Oil Steady Crude oil prices steadied...

The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...

The Nasdaq 100 witnessed its largest one-day fall since 2022 after the DeepSeek correction extended much further on Monday. Potentially, this technology could be a game-changer, and questions are...

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...