ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We expect a consensus 0.3% MoM core inflation reading in the US today. We see the rise in the USD/JPY as an indication that fast money is probably positioned for a stronger figure, meaning there are...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

The FX market appears in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI. Today, there aren’t key data releases, but we’ll keep an eye on speeches by Fed member John Williams and the...

Large parts of the commodity complex came under pressure yesterday, with the sell-off led by energy. European gas prices came under pressure with ample storage, whilst for oil there are more signs of...

Major FX pairs look to have settled into early-year ranges and now await the next big input – Thursday's release of December CPI data for the US. The modest back-up in interest rates this year...

Protests at Libya’s largest oil field has seen force majeure declared on these supplies. This supply disruption and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide some...

The dollar is back around Friday’s open levels against most G10 currencies as markets face contradicting indications from the jobs market and ISM services index. Expect a quiet start to the week...

A bearish EIA report saw oil giving back some of its gains made earlier in the week. Meanwhile, nickel continues to come under pressure with fundamentals set to remain soft through 2024Energy - Large...

The soft landing playbook could see a temporary reversal today were the December US jobs report to come in on the strong side. The market seems to have gotten a little ahead of itself in pricing the...

Oil prices moved higher yesterday with tensions continuing to grow in the Middle EastEnergy – Tensions LingerFurther tension in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher yesterday. ICE (NYSE:ICE)...

Hawks and doves might both be satisfied with yesterday's Fed minutes. Stressing conditionality seems inconsistent with March cut expectations, but the openness to a QT exit and concerns about the...

The dollar jumped yesterday as investors started to return from the long Christmas break. Markets are unwinding some dovish bets, and questioning stretched equity valuations, ultimately favoring...

The Bank of Japan did not give in to market pressure and kept its dovish guidance intact. However, the wording on the economic and inflation outlook paves the way for a hike in the second quarter in...

The Bank of Japan kept its major policy settings unchanged and made no changes to its forward guidance, pushing the yen down against the dollar. But we think the shift in tone is clear and major...

The positive sentiment following the Fed’s comments continued yesterday, with energy and metals trading in green. As for metals, new sanctions by the UK on Russian metals combined with positive...

The dollar is recovering some ground after the pushback from Fed officials against rate-cut bets. However, the dovish Dot Plot may work as an anchor for rates and keep the dollar soft into the end of...