Originally published by AxiTrader
Welcome to the Forex Today column.
In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.
RECAP
Are we at the start of the Summer doldrums? That's a question that springs to mind when I look at the ranges for the euro, yen, and pound over the past few days.
At present though I'm going to say this lack of volatility is a result of the dearth of data, in this back end of the month, to add to what we know about central banks and policy.
We'll see.
But while the majors, and the Aussie, might have been quiet the kiwi and Canadian dollar were on the March.
HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS
June has been the month of central bankers. We've had big meetings from the ECB, Fed, BoE, and BoJ. We've seen the Bank of Canada intimate it will be raising rates soon and we've had the battle inside the Bank of England exposed as likely leading to a rate hike - perhaps as soon as this year.
And last night central bankers were still to the fore in currency markets.
Yesterday in Japan BOJ deputy governor Iwata said there was no chance of higher rates in Japan because the economy still needs the support of “powerful” easing given the inflation target was far from satisfied.
That didn't really have any impact on the USD/JPY rate as the lack of follow through on this week's US dollar rally has left prices trading a very tight range over recent days as you can see in the 4-hour charts.
It's looking like 111.00 is support on the downside with 111.70/80 resistance.
Likewise it was central bank speak in the UK that attracted the attention of GBP/USD traders. Outgoing BoE MPC member Kristin Forbes said that the UK is at risk from the pounds fall and of inflation shooting higher still. She’s off the MPC at the end of the month which mitigated the impact of the speech. But her words again highlighted the battle at the BoE over rates.
The previous day we heard from Andrew Haldane that he is likely to change his vote later this year if the economy evolves as he expects it to. So to that end, it is worth noting that the Confederation of British Industry said factory orders in the UK hit their highest level in 30 years during May. Export orders were the highest in 22 years. Ah, the soothing effects on an economy of a weaker currency.
Anyway the pound is barely changed against the dollar at 1.2679 this morning
In the end though, this battle over the policy outlook and the divergence between where markets see moves and where central bankers are telling us rates are heading keep forex markets fairly rangebound overnight.
Elsewhere the USD/CAD rally faltered with the CAD 0.7% higher this morning after much stronger than expected retail sales for April.
The rise of 0.8% was four times what the pundits had forecast for the month. So, together with oil's mild recovery, the Canadian dollar caught a bid and USD/CAD is back down at 1.3233. It’s a full reversal of the previous day's gains as traders guess that maybe governor Poloz and his colleagues at the BoC will be moving policy sooner rather than later.
USD/CAD is now an ugly weekly candle. Through in the fact that it failed at the 200-day moving average these past two days and we have a darkened outlook. Last week's low of 1.3164 has to hold otherwise a big fall could ensue. I'll be out if that breaks.
Closer to home the kiwi is still doing well after yesterday morning’s RBNZ decision. That governor Wheeler tried to signal rates won’t be rising in a hurry was completely overshadowed by what’s looks like it might have been positioning by traders for a dovish hold and more overt comments or action on the NZD/USD rate. So the kiwi is up 0.65% at 0.7270 and just below trendline resistance.
You can see the overhead resistance pretty clearly. But it's equally true that recently trade has taken price through it intra-day before respecting it on the close.
That kiwi's strength has knocked AUD/NZD down to 1.0373 for a loss of 0.75%. That cross is now back near a trendline going back to early 2015.Support on that cross is at 1.0337. Against the US dollar the Aussie is holding a little better at 0.7538 this morning down around 0.2%. It’s near the lows of the last 24 hours and still looking a little vulnerable at the moment.
I've written my specific Australian dollar daily column here and today I've had a look at AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD.
And you'll notice I haven't got to the euro yet. Largely it's because there isn't much happening. As a trader who uses daily bars when I have to move to lower time frames to find direction, it's always a warning to me.
Euro is indecisive around the old trendline and at 1.1150ish this morning. For me though the 1.1100/10 region is the key. I'm short. But this level has to break first to ignite the next move lower.
Have a great day's trading.