Originally published by AxiTrader
Markets Overview:
- Commodities: WTI Crude $48.63 (+0.81 %), Brent Crude $50.79 (+1.20 %), Natural Gas $2.91 (+0.21 %), Gold $1311.42 (-0.34 %), Copper $219.25 (-0.81 %)
Volatility picks up
After a quiet APAC session, volatility picked up as European traders arrived at their desk. The focus was on the GBP/USD and the currency saw the highest volatility amongst G10 currencies today. The announcement from UK Prime Minister May that the UK government will trigger Article 50 in March of next year sent the Pound tumbling towards a fresh three-month low against the Dollar. GBP/USD found support at 1.2820 so far, but is likely to remain under pressure in the near-term. The next big support level lies at the current yearly low at 1.2790.
There were plenty of manufacturing PMI releases today and most of them either matched or beat expectations. Here is an overview over the European numbers:
French Manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 49.5 expected and 49.5 previously
German Manufacturing PMI 54.3 vs 54.3 expected and 54.3 previously
Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs 52.6 expected and 52.6 previously
UK Manufacturing PMI 55.4 vs 52.1 expected and 55.3 previously
A solid number out of the UK, but it did not help the Pound a lot. Later in the session, we got two US manufacturing PMI numbers – one from Markit and one from ISM. Both exceeded expectations as they arrived at 51.5 and 51.5 respectively, vs. 51.4 and 50.3 expected.
The EUR/USD weakened slightly after the strong US PMI numbers, along with the Pound, but the commodity currencies remain very well bid. AUD/USD recovered to 0.7680 after trading as low as 0.7590 in the early European session. The NZD/USD also managed to regain some strength, and rose from 0.7250 to 0.7290. Meanwhile, USD/CAD came under renewed pressure amid rising oil prices, which support the Canadian Dollar.
Some decent moves were seen in precious metals too. Keep an eye on Silver as it is approaching key support at $18.50. Gold has broken below trendline resistance and its looking like we'll get another test of $1300 soon.
Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) recommends to short EUR/CHF
The German investment has short EUR/CHF as their trade of the week and recommended to clients to short it at 1.0912 with a 1.12 stop and 1.04 target. Deutsche cited their expectation of the SNB withdrawing from the market in Q1 next year as main reason.
Deutsche thinks more losses ahead for USD/JPY
The bank is not just bullish on the Swiss Franc, but also on the other major safe haven currency, the Yen. Deutsche expects USD/JPY to decline to 94 by year-end, as it sees the further easing by the BoJ as not effective to weaken the Yen.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) likes EUR/JPY, Citibank bearish on GBP/JPY
Two more trade of the week recommendations from major banks: Morgan Stanley recommends to buy EUR/JPY at market with a 112.10 stop and 121 target, while Citibank favours shorting GBP/JPY at 130.55 with a 127.10 target and 132.60 stop. EUR/JPY is at 113.90 and GBP/JPY at 130.58 currently.
Views are split on EUR/USD
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch expects the EUR/USD to decline towards 1.08 by year-end, as the bank expects a hawkish Fed to boost the Dollar. Meanwhile, the two major Swiss banks, UBS and Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN), have the year-end forecast at 1.16.
Focus turns to RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia will decide today on interest rates and most market participants expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged. Given the recent economic data, the RBA is likely to maintain a neutral tone, in line with previous comments.
Economic Calendar (AEDT):
- 08:00 - New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence
- 11:30 - Australia Building Approvals
- 14:30 - RBA Interest Rate Decision
- 14:30 - RBA Statement
- 19:30 - UK Construction PMI