Originally published by AxiTrader
Over the course of June, the 20-day ATR on a number of stock market indexes has been climbing.
That this expansion in the daily ranges through which stocks were trading was happening while volatility measures like the CBOE Volatility Index weren't picking up the increase in volatility and while the moves are still yet to really register in traders consciousness is testament to the strength of the "buy-the-dip" mentality that traders hold.
But for me volatility begets volatility and this increase in the ATR is a sign that after more than 6 months of rallying global stock markets are starting to look like a material pullback is at hand.
Earlier today I wrote, "If the Nasdaq doesn’t bounce back sharply (tonight) I’ll be calling it – A top in place and a run toward 5385 (in Nasdaq 100 terms)".
It's a similar story with the FTSE 100 which I wrote about recently and said it was approaching important levels. The FTSE outperformed the weakness in continental European stock markets last night so while the trendline from the Trumponomics rally was pierced prices recovered and are resting right on it at the moment.
Last night's low was 7244 in CFD terms - a break would open the way for a move to 7,167 and then 7,030/40
Here's the chart:
On the continent, the DAX has already broken its uptrend earlier this week.
Last night's 1.8% fall shows up as a truly bearish candle. Certainly price is outside the Bollinger band, but we are seeing a volatility expansion so that may not provide the support it usually would. My target is now the 38.2% retracement of the Trumponomics/EU recovery rally at 11,829.
Here's the chart:
Trying to call long-term tops is fraught with danger. That's not I'm doing here.
Rather in all three indexes I'm simply looking for a garden variety 38.2% retracement of the recent moves over the coming weeks/months. That will then be the time to assess whether stock index prices have further to run - or not as may be the case.
Have a great day's trading.
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