Currency Forecast

The US dollar has so far retraced about a quarter of its 10% run-up from late September. That has largely been a function of investors reducing the tariff risk premium embedded into the currencies of...

Our recent article, Why Are Bond Yields Rising, explains that the recent 1% increase in yields, as shown below, is almost entirely due to negative sentiment. As we wrote, the bond market calls...

The Bank of Japan delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but surprised markets on the hawkish side by materially raising its inflation forecasts. We expect two more hikes this year which can pave...

Markets have continued to unwind US Dollar longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see...

The narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world have been a key theme in the improving Japanese yen forecast in the last couple of weeks. The main USD/JPY pair...

USD/JPY could face volatility as Trump’s policy moves and the BOJ meeting loom large. Speculation grows over a potential rate hike by the BOJ, with inflation and Treasury yields hitting decade...

The fact that trade policy did not feature prominently in President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech has triggered a decent correction lower in the US dollar. We cannot rule out a near-term...

Today, all eyes are on Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. Financial markets are bracing for a flurry of executive orders ranging from immigration to energy and...

Besides expecting another round of positive US activity data, today’s FX focus will be on the Senate confirmation hearing of Scott Bessent, Trump’s nominee for US Treasury Secretary. He will be...

The US PPI surprised on the soft side, but that does not mean today’s CPI will send similar upbeat signals. We expect a 0.3% MoM core print, which can offer a new round of support to the dollar. In...

The EUR/USD managed to bounce back along with all risk assets after hitting a new multi-year low sub 1.02 handle on Monday. The single currency managed to rise a little further on Tuesday, at the...

Political uncertainty and weak economic data weigh heavily on GBP/USD, as the pair tests critical support levels. Surging UK bond yields and expectations for BoE rate cuts add pressure to the...

The US releases PPI figures for January today, where the core measure is expected to accelerate at an unwelcoming 0.3% MoM. That should cast more doubts about further Fed easing and give the dollar...

US dollar keeps gaining strength amid solid economic data and inflation concerns Right now, the market is eyeing key inflation reports this week to determine the Fed's next move. Meanwhile, the...