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Capital Flows Still Strong

Published 01/12/2017, 02:10 pm
Updated 06/07/2021, 05:05 pm
USD/KRW
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Originally published by AxiTrader

After a few days of frustrating trade, all eyes in Asia can now turn to the reality of the start of the month and the data flow that brings.

So far this morning we have already seen South Korean Q3 GDP upgraded from a 3.6% growth rate to 3.8% - the highest in 3 years. But like many nations at present growth has come in the absence of inflation with the year on year rate in South Korea dropping to 1.3% from 1.8% after November's shock 0.7% fall.

South Korean trade has also been released with the balance of trade printing a little lower than last month at $7.8 billion. The year on year growth rate of exports increased to 9.6% from 7.1%. But that was lower than the 10.1% growth rate expected. On the other side of the ledger imports growth was also higher than last month during November with an increase of 12.3% - but it too as lower than the 13.7% expected.

In the aftermath of the data the won is sitting around 1086 but looking like it might be bottoming in spite of yesterday's BoK rate rise and this relatively solild - ex inflation - data.

If USDKRW gets up and back into this downtrend it could - counter intuitively - rally back above 1100.

Chart

Japanese data out so far has been pretty much as expected but there is a raft of data coming up across the region which will give a gauge of the outlook for growth.

Chart
Asia data today - via TradingEconomics.com

Foremost among that flow is the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China. After yesterday's solid NBS reads for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI's failed to halt selling in Chinese and regional markets it appears that even with strength offshore regional traders have a bit of a bearish bias.

Despite that, Reuters reported this morning that "regionally, EM Asia saw a five-month high of $14 billion combined equity and debt inflows spread consistently across the region – perhaps a reflection of diminishing tensions on the Korean Peninsula".

So international investors are clearly still enamoured with the regions solid growth recently and opportunities for 2018.

Have a great day's trading.

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