The trading week ended on Friday night with some month-end shenanigans with USD surging once more despite a slightly softer than expected US PCE print with rising bond yields helping add volatility to the mix. While European stocks couldn’t take advantage of a very weak Euro, Wall Street put in a very solid session as traders prepare for a long weekend away from their desks. Euro fell straight down to the 1.10 handle while the Australian dollar wasn’t able to hold above the 68 cent level, falling to short term support at the mid 67 handle.
10 year Treasury yields were up more than 4 points through the 3.9% level while oil prices fell back yet again with Brent crude slipping below the $77USD per barrel level. Gold fell back even sharper but was able to defend the $2500USD per ounce zone.
Looking at markets from Friday’s session in Asia, where mainland Chinese share markets zoomed higher with the Shanghai Composite up more than 0.7% while the Hang Seng Index is equally bullish, closing nearly 1.2% higher at 17989 points.
The Hang Seng Index daily chart was starting to look more optimistic a few months back but price action has slid down from the 19000 point level and continues to deflate in a series of steps as the Chinese economy slows. A few false breakouts have all reversed course and another downside move was looming here but this breakout has some potential if it can just clear short term resistance:
Meanwhile Japanese stock markets were also somewhat bullish with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% higher to 38647 points.
Price action had been indicating a rounding top on the daily chart with daily momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout last month above the 40000 point level almost in full remission. Short term support subsequently broke on that retracement, and then the front fell off. We are now seeing a big fill here but Yen volatility is coming back so a sustained return above the 38000 point level from May/June is still possible:
Australian stocks had a solid session to finish the week with the ASX200 closing more than 0.6% higher at 8091 points.
SPI futures are down more than 0.2% despite the higher close on Wall Street on Friday night and also a slightly weaker AUD. Short term momentum and the daily chart pattern was potentially signalling a top here and this combination could still eventuate, but for now watch support at or just below the 8000 point level:
European markets were again unable to put on meaningful gains despite a much weaker Euro as the Eurostoxx 50 Index closed dead flat at 4958 points.
The daily chart shows price action off trend after breaching the early December 4600 point highs with daily momentum retracing well into an oversold phase. This was looking to turn into a larger breakout with support at the 4900 point level quite firm with resistance just unable to breach the 5000 point barrier. Price has cleared the 4700 local resistance level as it seeks to return to the previous highs but momentum was slowing before this solid move:
Wall Street caught the month end bid before the long weekend with the NASDAQ up more than 1.1% or so while the S&P500 was also able to finish strongly to close 1% higher at 5648 points.
The four hourly chart illustrates how this bounceback had cleared the mid 5300 point level with momentum retracing fully from oversold to very positive these past two weeks. The potential for a positive breakout was building for a swift return to the early August highs as price has respected short term support:
Currency markets had previously moved against USD but the King returned to form yet again on Friday night despite the soft domestic economic news with Euro losing the most ground with a full retracement down to the 1.10 handle.
The union currency had previously bottomed out at the 1.07 level before gapping higher earlier in the week with more momentum building to the upside with the 1.0750 mid level as support but there was still too much pressure from King Dollar. This was looking overbought in the short term as I mentioned before, but had looked structurally supportive so this extended dip is now threatening to turn into a wider rout:
The USDJPY is trying hard to get out of its downwards medium term pattern with what looked like a rebound session overnight but failed to breach overhead resistance and remains somewhat flat here just below the 145 handle.
The overall volatility speaks volumes as it pushed aside the 158 level as longer term resistance in the weeks leading up to the BOJ rate hike. Momentum was suggesting a possible bottom was brewing as the BOJ wants to get this under control with this breakout looking like holding so far, but watch out for some retracement as the new trading week gets underway:
The Australian dollar has been pushing higher on the weaker USD and the recent soft unemployment print, and actually one of the strongest undollars but it finally broke its short term uptrend on Friday night, retreating below the 68 cent level but not short term support.
During June the Pacific Peso hadn’t been able to take advantage of any USD weakness with momentum barely in the positive zone but that has changed in recent weeks with price action finally getting out of the mid 66 cent level that acted as a point of control. A breakout was brewing here on the four hourly chart as price action matched the previous high but the momentum is not there:
Oil markets are failing to move out of their previously weak position as volatility builds with Brent crude taking some losses to get back to the $77USD per barrel level in another weak move on Friday night.
After breaking out above the $83 level last month, price action had stalled above the $90 level awaiting new breakouts as daily momentum waned and then retraced back to neutral settings. Daily ATR support had been broken with short term momentum still in oversold mode as this swings into higher volatility:
Gold is keeping above the $2500USD per ounce level but only just as volatility builds as it fails to return to its previous high from mid-August, settling at the $2503 level on Friday alongside other weak undollars.
The longer term support at the $2300 level remains firm while short term resistance at the $2470 level was the target to get through last week as I indicated. This is still looking a little overextended and dependent on USD weakness:
