By John Geddie
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Either Australia or New Zealand could be on course for a stock market rally next week depending on which of their rugby teams are crowned World Cup champions on Saturday.
Research from financial information provider Standard & Poor's Capital IQ shows that the last three winners of the World Cup have all had material increases in their respective markets index in the week following the final.
New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 .NZ50 climbed 1.4 percent after their win in 2011, South Africa's FTSE SA was up 7.8 percent in 2007 and England's FTSE 100 .FTSE rose 0.5 percent in 2003.
"What looks to be up for grabs is not only the William Webb Ellis Trophy, but also the possibility of earning abnormal economic returns or losses in the following days," said Clive Cooper, vice president and Pacific head of sales at Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
The All Blacks are looking to make history at Twickenham by becoming the first team to win back-to-back World Cups, but to do so they must beat old rivals Australia. The teams have not met in a final since the tournament's inception in 1987.
S&P pointed to research that shows how mood differences can affect stock markets. In 1993, economist Edward Saunders found a systematic relationship between New York weather and major American stock indices.
More recently Alex Edmans, professor of finance at the London Business School, said his research showed that if a national team is eliminated from an international tournament it makes investors fed up and pessimistic. He said a defeat for a national rugby team triggers a fall of 0.15% the next day.
However, it is not an exact science. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 3 percent on Oct. 5, the day markets opened after England lost to Australia in the Rugby World Cup to become the first host team to bow out in the group stages.