By Senad Karaahmetovic
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are again in the focus of investors as the tech giant prepares to unveil a new iPhone 14 lineup.
The 'Far Out' event, which is due to start today, comes after Apple stock price lost over 11% in the last few weeks. A strong rebound from YTD lows pushed Apple shares to trade near record highs, however, the stock is feeling strong selling pressure again.
For a Lynx Equity Strategies analyst, Apple stock selling likely won’t end soon.
"The next +/- $325bn move in AAPL’s market cap, to the recent high or the recent low of the stock, is unlikely to be influenced by whether iPhone shipment is +/- 10mn units. Nor are the usual bottom-up factors such as ASP, build plan, lead times and new products likely to move the needle," the analyst told clients in a note.
Instead, the analyst sees Apple shares moving lower this week on “multiple catalysts,” such as the worsening macro environment, the product launch event as well as investor conference.
Even more importantly, the analyst urges investors to pay more attention to an inverse relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and Apple stock price.
"After a break of a few weeks (which can be explained by Fed factors), the inverse relationship has returned. Apple stock's correlation to Treasury yield is significantly higher than its peers in the trillion-dollar market cap club," he added.
As a result, the analyst sees Apple stock returning to its recent low in response to the 10-year yield return to its recent high.
Lynx has a $125 per share price target on Apple.