By Wayne Cole and Gyles Beckford
SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars marked time on Monday as a bounce from recent lows was stymied by speculation U.S. interest rates could rise as early as next month.
The Aussie dollar idled at $0.7402 after gaining 1.6 percent last week, with resistance proving stiff around $0.7425. It was also steady at 92.02 yen, having climbed 1.8 percent last week in its biggest gain so far this year.
Last week's rally came as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded more positive on the economy while tempering its long-standing calls for a further fall in the currency.
The shift in tone was taken as lengthening the odds for another policy easing and caught the market when it was very short of the Aussie.
Interbank futures show the implied probability of a cut by year-end has now diminished to around 45 percent, from 80 percent a couple of weeks ago.
Still, there are plenty of headwinds with global commodity prices under pressure and the Federal Reserve considered likelier to lift rates next month.
"We expect the RBA cash rate is set to remain at a record low level for a sustained period," said George Tharenou, an economist at UBS.
"Coupled with our U.S. colleagues view that the Fed will likely commence hiking rates in September, means we look for the AUD to depreciate further to $0.70 by end-2015."
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 was holding just above $0.6600, having enjoyed a short-covering bounce last Friday as an update on dairy payouts proved no worse than expected.
Dairy giant Fonterra cut its payout forecast to NZ$3.85 a kilo of milk solids from the previous NZ$5.25/kg forecast. It softened the blow with an interest-free loan to support incomes, prompting something of a relief rally in the kiwi.
"The directional trend for the NZ dollar - and the risk profile - remains lower, but with New Zealand data softness and US data strength well understood and well-priced, markets will need a fresh catalyst for further near-term continuation," ANZ analysts said in a note.
That leaves the kiwi supported at $0.6570 and resistance at $0.6650.
New Zealand government bond yields were 2 basis points lower.
Australian government bond futures firmed as the yield curve flattened. The three-year bond contract YTTc1 added 1 tick to 98.020, while the 10-year contract rose 7 ticks to 97.1900.