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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks take heart in stimulus speculation

Published 16/08/2019, 01:51 pm
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks take heart in stimulus speculation
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* China touts plan to boost disposable incomes

* Speculation grows of aggressive central bank easing

* Bonds hold huge gains, more yield curves invert

* Euro dragged as ECB's Rehn flags Sept move

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Asian shares found some footing on Friday after a turbulent week as China hinted at more support for its economy, amid growing expectations of aggressive stimulus from all the major central banks.

Sentiment got a lift when China's state planner said Beijing would roll out a plan to boost disposable income, though details were lacking. bounce in U.S. and European stock futures also helped, with E-Minis for the S&P 500 ESc1 up 0.55% and the EUROSTOXX 50 STXEc1 rising 0.5%.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS responded by edging up 0.2%, though it was still down 1% for the week.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 recouped early losses to be 0.09% firmer, while Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 rose 0.7%.

The Sino-U.S. trade dispute remained a drag after Beijing on Thursday vowed to counter the latest tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he believed China wanted to make a deal and that the dispute would be fairly short, despite it already lasting more than a year. no settlement in sight, investors have hedged against a global slowdown by buying bonds. Yields on 30-year debt US30YT=RR hit an all-time low of 1.916% to be down 27 basis points for the week, the sharpest such decline since mid-2012.

That meant investors were willing to lend the government money for three decades for less than the overnight rate.

Such is the gloom that surprisingly strong U.S. retail sales came and went with no impact on the bond rally. have cautioned that the current bond market is a different beast than in the past and might not be sending a true signal on recession.

"The bond market may have got it wrong this time, but we would not dismiss the latest recession signals on grounds of distortions," said Simon MacAdam, global economist at Capital Economics.

"Rather, it is of some comfort for the world economy that unlike all previous U.S. yield curve inversions, the Fed has already begun loosening monetary policy this time."

CAVALRY COMING

Indeed, futures FEDWATCH imply a one-in-three chance the Federal Reserve will chop rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, and see them reaching just 1% by the end of next year. were plenty of other signs the cavalry were coming.

European Central Banker Olli Rehn on Thursday flagged the need for a significant easing package in September. are keyed for a cut in the deposit rate of at least 10 basis points and a resumption of bond buying, sending German 10-year bund yields DE10YT=RR to a record low of -0.71%.

"Notions that the package will include a revamped QE programme also saw a sharp rally in Italian, Spanish and Portuguese debt," said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at National Australia Bank.

"If the ECB undertakes such substantive stimulus, it is unlikely to do so alone given the upward pressure it would put on the U.S. dollar."

Mexico overnight became the latest country to surprise with a cut in rates, the first in five years. yield curve inverted by the most in nearly two decades, piling pressure on the Bank of Canada to act. the talk of ECB easing knocked the euro back to $1.1099 EUR= and away from a top of $1.1230 early in the week. That helped lift the dollar index up to 98.217 .DXY and off the week's trough of 97.033.

The dollar could make little headway on the safe-haven yen, though, and idled at 106.20 yen JPY= .

The collapse in bond yields continued to make non-interest paying gold look relatively more attractive and the metal held at $1,521.20 XAU= , just off a six-year peak.

Oil prices were trying to bounce after two days of sharp losses. Brent crude LCOc1 futures added 46 cents to $58.69, while U.S. crude CLc1 rose 59 cents to $55.06 a barrel. O/R

https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4 Asia-Pacific valuations

https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Editing by Sam Holmes and Jacqueline Wong)

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