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GLOBAL MARKETS-Roller-coaster Q1 ends with dollar under pressure, stocks flat

Published 01/04/2016, 02:45 am
Updated 01/04/2016, 02:50 am
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Roller-coaster Q1 ends with dollar under pressure, stocks flat
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* Crude edges higher, still below $40 a barrel

* Gold heads for 16 pct quarterly gain, best in 30 years

* Wall St erases big losses during quarter

By David Gaffen

NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) - Equity markets worldwide fell for the first time in four days on Thursday, the final day of a roller-coaster first quarter that has hammered the dollar and the pound but has proven the best in decades for gold and bonds.

March was closing out on a subdued note after a volatile quarter that saw investors vacillate between calm and panic. Oil prices, the source of much concern throughout the quarter, were a touch higher as investors looked for clarity over a possible agreement by major oil-producing nations to reduce supply.

The dollar hovered near seven-week lows against the euro. It has fallen this week on reduced expectations for near-term interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, particularly after comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

U.S. oil futures CLc1 rose 1.3 percent to $38.82 a barrel, rebounding somewhat after another report of record U.S. stockpiles, while China was put on a downgrade warning by S&P.

This quarter "has all been about the three C's. Commodities, China and central banks," said Aberdeen Asset Management investment committee member Kevin Daly.

When oil hit $27 a barrel in mid-January there were "pretty dark" predictions for the global economy, Daly said, but the rebound in crude, China and ECB stimulus and the Federal Reserve cooling rate hike expectations had all bolstered confidence.

Wall Street was sleepy one day ahead of key monthly labor market data. In the span of three months, the S&P 500 erased a 11 percent fall - one of its worst-ever starts to a year - and is now set to end the quarter with modest gains.

The S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.11 percent, to 2,066.18, putting it up 1.1 percent for the quarter.

The euro pushed up to $1.1388 EUR= and the yen hovered at 112.34 to the greenback, leaving the six-currency dollar index .DXY on track for its biggest monthly fall since April 2015 and largest quarterly drop in five years. markets had a groggy morning with shares .FTEU3 down 1 percent. Euro zone inflation data was muted underscoring just why the European Central Bank is cranking up its stimulus efforts.

Sterling has also taken a pounding this year as concerns have grown about a potential British exit, or 'Brexit', from the European Union.

It barely budged on Thursday but has seen its biggest quarterly tumble in 6-1/2 years against the euro EURGBP=R .

This year's turbulent start pushed MSCI's benchmark EM equity index .MSCIEF down 14 percent by the time it bottomed on Jan. 21.

But fast forward 2-1/2 months and EM stocks are up 20 percent. Currencies from the Russian rouble RUB= to the Brazilian real BRL= have surged and struggling parts of Africa have some of the best-performing bonds in the world. Nikkei .N225 sagged 0.7 percent on Thursday to an 11 percent quarterly loss, having been slammed by the 7-percent surge in the yen against the dollar.

Shanghai shares .SSEC have been an even bigger loser, having dropped about 15 percent since the start of the year.

Safe-haven gold XAU= has been the big winner of 2016 so far. It ticked up to $1,235 an ounce and has jumped a whopping 16 percent this quarter, its best run in nearly 30 years. GOL/

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC-Cross assets global

http://reut.rs/1Rx8jLT GRAPHIC-Emerging market assets YTD

http://reut.rs/1ZKAaO6 GRAPHIC-Commodities performance

http://link.reuters.com/rac73w

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