🧐 ProPicks AI October update is out now! See which stocks made the listPick Stocks with AI

FOREX-Dollar bounces off 2018 lows on safe-haven buying, euro profit-taking

Published 07/01/2021, 11:12 pm
Updated 07/01/2021, 11:18 pm
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
-
GBP/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
AUD/USD
-
BAC
-
USD/CNY
-
DX
-
BTC/USD
-
BTC/USD
-

* Control of both Houses gives Biden scope to push agenda

* Riskier currencies seen outperforming on growth prospects

* Dollar outlooks increasingly mixed

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The dollar bounced off its lowest levels since 2018 to its highest in a week on Thursday, its gains attributed partly to safe-haven buying after violence on Capitol Hill and profit-taking by investors who had been betting on the euro.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of peers, rose 0.6% to 89.886 =USD .

Hundreds of President Donald Trump's supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday in a bid to overturn his election defeat, battling police in the hallways and delaying the certification of Democratic President-elect Joe Biden's victory for hours. currency markets were largely unperturbed by the scenes of chaos in Washington, though analysts said the dollar's rise on Thursday indicated some safe-haven buying.

The greenback has declined more than 13% from a March 2020 peak. While dollar positioning still remains bearish, analysts views on the currency's prospects for 2021 are increasingly mixed.

On the one hand, some argue rising inflation expectations based on expected U.S. government stimulus will weigh on real interest rates and put pressure on the dollar, especially with a Federal Reserve that is expected to stand still on rates and allow an inflation overshoot above 2%. Real interest rates are interest rates adjusted for inflation.

Conversely, some analysts say that an extended period of bearish positioning on the dollar, as well as rising Treasury yields, could help lift the currency over the longer term.

"The lift in both nominal yields and inflation expectations provides an interesting backdrop for asset prices," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

"As long as real rates are weak the dollar could remain under pressure, particularly given the consensus view that the Fed will allow inflation to overshoot its 2% target."

Foley added that if the market begins to see the U.S. economy as likely to outperform again on growth and begins to suspect that the Fed could be less likely to lean on the yield curve, the dollar could find support.

LONG EURO

She also noted that the market remained long on the euro, and a slow vaccine rollout in Europe could trigger some profit-taking. The single currency sank as much as 0.6% to $1.2245 EUR=EBS .

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) said the long euro market position also makes it "one of the most vulnerable G10 currencies to an overall market risk-off" and that, following the dollar's sell-off last year, Europe's shared currency has now reached a long-term equilibrium.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.83% to 77.39 U.S. cents AUD= after touching a nearly three-year high of 78.195 on Wednesday.

The dollar gained 0.6% to 103.64 yen JPY=EBS , touching its highest level against the Japanese currency in more than a week.

The yuan was largely flat at 6.4655 per dollar CNY=CFXS after Chinese authorities signalled a desire for a slower pace of gains. remarks by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Wednesday follow an advance of around 10% on the greenback since last May as China's economic rebound has led the world's pandemic recovery.

The British pound GBP= traded 0.2 lower at $1.3577 as it continued to meander below the almost three-year high of $1.3703 touched on Monday.

Bitcoin BTC=BTSP marked a fresh all-time high of $37,800 on Thursday, extending a surge of more than 800% since mid-March. It last traded at $37,491.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.