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Fitch Upgrades 10, Affirms 13 Classes in Three Sapphire Transactions; Outlook Stable

Published 25/10/2018, 03:48 pm
© Reuters.  Fitch Upgrades 10, Affirms 13 Classes in Three Sapphire Transactions; Outlook Stable

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Fitch Ratings-Sydney-October 25: Fitch Ratings has upgraded 10 and affirmed 13 classes of notes from three Sapphire Series transactions. The transactions consist of notes backed by pools of first-ranking Australian residential non-conforming mortgage loans. All mortgages were originated by Bluestone Group Pty Ltd and the notes were issued by Permanent Custodians Limited in its capacity as trustee of the Sapphire trusts. The three transactions are: Sapphire XIII Series 2014-1 Trust Sapphire XIV Series 2016-1 Trust Sapphire XVI Series 2017-1 Trust The upgrade for the class C notes from Sapphire 2016-1 is due to changes to some calculation conventions in the cash flow model in Fitch's APAC Residential Mortgage Rating Criteria, dated 23 October 2018, build-up of credit enhancement (CE) and improved performance. The remaining nine upgrades are due to build-up of CE and improved performance. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this ratings action commentary. KEY RATING DRIVERS Operational Risk: Bluestone Mortgages Pty Limited is a non-bank mortgage originator and servicer. Bluestone Servicing Pty Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bluestone Group. Fitch undertook an onsite operational review and found that the operations of the originator and servicer were comparable with other similar lenders. Asset Analysis: Improved asset characteristics, including a lower weighted-average (WA) unindexed loan/value ratio, decreased arrears for Sapphire 2014-1 and 2016-1 as well as increased seasoning for Sapphire 2017-1, drove the 'AAAsf' WA foreclosure frequency for 2014-1, 2016-1 and 2017-1 fall to 25.1%, 33.6% and 36.6%, respectively, from 28.0%, 39.0% and 36.7%. The 'AAAsf' WA recovery rate (WARR) improved to 76.3%, from 72.5%, for Sapphire 2014-1 and 61.9%, from 60.7%, for Sapphire 2016-1, but deteriorated to 55.6%, from 56.2%, for Sapphire 2017-1. As at end-August 2018, 30+ day arrears of all three transactions tracked above Fitch's 2Q18 non-conforming Dinkum RMBS index of 5.3%; ranging between 9.8% for Sapphire 2016-1 and 13.7% for 2017-1. We have incorporated the higher arrears in our asset analysis, but they have not translated into an equivalent level of realised losses and are consistent with other Sapphire transactions. Realised losses have been 0.8% of total collateral for Sapphire 2014-1, 0.2% for 2016-1 and 0% for 2017-1 since closing. All losses have been covered by excess spread and there are no outstanding charge-offs. The underlying pools of all three transactions consist of 100% non-conforming mortgages. The composition of low documentation loans in the underlying pools ranged between 55.5% for Sapphire 2016-1 and 65.9% for 2014-1. Fitch considers the level of obligor concentration in the transactions' mortgage portfolios to be a key factor in assessing tail risk. Concentration and tail risk are mitigated by the subordination provided by the non-amortising class G and H notes and by documented tranche balance floors for Sapphire 2016-1 and 2017-1. Liability Analysis: Sapphire 2017-1 is currently paying down sequentially, building up CE, while Sapphire 2014-1 and 2016-1 are amortising pro rata, with limited build up in CE. Sapphire 2014-1 and 2016-1 have switched to paying sequentially during the pro rata period, due to performance triggers being breached, leading to additional build-up of CE. Class G and H notes do not amortise during the pro rata period, which improves the CE of all rated notes as the portfolios amortise. We expect Sapphire 2017-1 to move to pro rata amortisation in May 2019, subject to performance, similar to the other Sapphire transactions. Fitch's cash flow analysis incorporates transaction-specific principal pro rata conditions, subject to tranche balance floors for Sapphire 2016-1 and 2017-1 and a turbo that activates on the call date. The ratings for Sapphire 2014-1's class D and E notes are constrained at their current level by tranche thickness in the tail-end of the transaction. Sapphire 2014-1 and 2016-1 benefit from an excess-spread reserve that has trapped AUD500,000 and is available to cover losses and interest shortfalls. Sapphire 2014-1 has a liquidity reserve sized at the higher of 1.9% of the aggregate outstanding note balance and AUD400,000. Fitch's cash flow analysis for Sapphire 2016-1 and 2017-1 incorporates a liquidity facility sized at the higher of 2.2% for Sapphire 2016-1 and 2.1% for Sapphire 2017-1 of the aggregate outstanding note balances and AUD400,000. Sapphire 2017-1 also includes the accumulation of the reverse-turbo class RM notes, which have reached their AUD625,000 limit. The notes passed all relevant Fitch stresses applied in our cash flow analysis at their respective ratings. Fitch conducted additional sensitivity analysis by stressing the transactions' base-case assumptions. The ratings of the class F notes from Sapphire 2014-1 were constrained given the sensitivity to decreases in WARR. Macroeconomic Factors: Fitch expects steady mortgage performance, supported by sustained economic growth in Australia that is driven by stable forecast GDP growth of 2.8% and one 25bp cash rate increase in 2019. RATING SENSITIVITIES Fitch does not expect the ratings to be affected by any foreseeable change in performance. The prospect of a downgrade is remote, given the level of subordination to all rated notes, pool performance and adequate excess spread. Fitch conducted sensitivity analysis by stressing the transactions' base-case assumptions. The results of rating-sensitivity testing, using the cash flow model, are shown below. Sapphire XIII Series 2014-1 Trust Notes: Class A1/A2/B/C/D/E/F Ratings: AAAsf/AAAsf/AAAsf/AAAsf/Asf/Asf/BBBsf Rating sensitivity to increased defaults: Increase defaults by 15%: AAAsf/AAAsf/AAAsf/AAAsf/Asf/Asf/BBBsf Increase defaults by 30%: AAAsf/AAAsf /AAAsf/ AAAsf/Asf/Asf/BBBsf Rating sensitivity to decreased recoveries: Reduce recoveries by 15%: AAAsf/ AAAsf/ AAAsf/ AAAsf/Asf/Asf/BBsf Reduce recoveries by 30%: AAAsf/ AAAsf/ AAAsf/ AAAsf/Asf/BBsf/

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G-10 Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action. DATA ADEQUACY Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pools and the transactions. There were no findings that were material to this analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any third-party assessments of the asset portfolios as part of its ongoing monitoring. Fitch did not review the results of a third-party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information prior to Sapphire 2014-1 and 2016-1 closing. Fitch sought to receive a third-party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information prior to Sapphire 2017-1 closing, but none was made available for this transaction. As part of its ongoing monitoring, Fitch reviewed a small targeted sample of Bluestone Group's origination files and found the information contained in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the originator's policies and practices and the other information provided to the agency about the asset portfolio. Overall, Fitch's assessment of the asset pool information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable. SOURCES OF INFORMATION The information below was used in the analysis: Loan-by-loan data provided by Bluestone as at August 2018 Transaction reporting data provided by Bluestone as at August 2018 Loan enforcement details provided by Bluestone as at August 2018

The issuer has informed Fitch that not all relevant underlying information used in the analysis of the rated notes is public. The full list of rating actions is shown below: Sapphire XIII Series 2014-1 Trust AUD41.2 million Class A1 notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD12.0 million Class A2 notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD6.0 million Class B notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD5.9 million Class C notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD3.8 million Class D notes affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable AUD2.2 million Class E notes affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable AUD1.7 million Class F notes affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable Sapphire XIV Series 2016-1 Trust AUD9.1 million Class A1a notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD40.0 million Class A1b notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD11.1 million Class A2 notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD6.3 million Class B notes upgraded to 'AAAsf'' from 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD7.4 million Class C notes upgraded to 'AAsf' from 'Asf'; Outlook Stable AUD5.1 million Class D notes upgraded to 'A+sf' from 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable AUD2.8 million Class E notes upgraded to 'Asf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable AUD2.3 million Class F notes upgraded to 'BBB+sf' from 'BB-sf'; Outlook Stable Sapphire XVI Series 2017-1 Trust AUD70.1 million Class A1 notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD15.4 million Class A2a notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD27.3 million Class A2b notes affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD11.5 million Class B notes upgraded to 'AAAsf' from 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable AUD12.8 million Class C notes upgraded to 'A+sf' from 'Asf' ; Outlook Stable AUD8.3 million Class D notes upgraded to 'BBB+sf' from 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable AUD4.5 million Class E notes upgraded to 'BBB-sf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable AUD3.8 million Class F notes upgraded to 'B+sf' from 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable Contacts: Lead Surveillance Analyst Hai Duong Le Associate Director +61 2 8256 0358

Fitch Australia Pty Ltd Level 15, 77 King St, Sydney NSW 2000 Committee Chairperson Natasha Vojvodic Senior Director +61 2 8256 0350 Media Relations: Peter Hoflich, Singapore, Tel: +65 6796 7229, Email: peter.hoflich@thefitchgroup.com; Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 6796 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable Criteria APAC Residential Mortgage Rating Criteria (pub. 22 Oct 2018) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10046448 Fitch's Interest Rate Stress Assumptions for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds - Excel File (pub. 02 Feb 2018) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10018863 Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 15 May 2018) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10029600 Structured Finance and Covered Bonds Counterparty Rating Criteria (pub. 01 Aug 2018) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10039504 Structured Finance and Covered Bonds Counterparty Rating Criteria: Derivative Addendum (pub. 01 Aug 2018) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10039505 Structured Finance and Covered Bonds Interest Rate Stresses Rating Criteria (pub. 02 Feb 2018) https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10018549 Additional Disclosures Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form https://www.fitchratings.com/site/dodd-frank-disclosure/10048211 Solicitation Status https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10048211#solicitation Endorsement Policy https://www.fitchratings.com/regulatory ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. DIRECTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS RELEVANT INTERESTS ARE AVAILABLE AT HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/SITE/REGULATORY. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. Copyright © 2018 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch's factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch's ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed. The information in this report is provided "as is" without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 Fitch Ratings, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (the "NRSRO"). While certain of the NRSRO's credit rating subsidiaries are listed on Item 3 of Form NRSRO and as such are authorized to issue credit ratings on behalf of the NRSRO (see https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory), other credit rating subsidiaries are not listed on Form NRSRO (the "non-NRSROs") and therefore credit ratings issued by those subsidiaries are not issued on behalf of the NRSRO. However, non-NRSRO personnel may participate in determining credit ratings issued by or on behalf of the NRSRO.

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