(Bloomberg) -- Chinese financial markets are likely to extend this year’s rally when they open for the first time after a Lunar New Year break on Thursday, with stocks hovering near a record.
The CSI 300 Index is within 70 points - or 1.2% - from its 2007 closing peak, and there are promising omens for it to break through that barrier. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong have gained 3.5% since onshore markets last traded, while the offshore yuan has been steady after hitting its strongest level versus the greenback in 32 months this week.
Even though the Chinese equity benchmark is trading at its highest valuation in nearly six years, traders remain bullish about the market, driven by strong corporate earnings, ample cash in China’s financial system and low borrowing costs. The economy’s ongoing recovery from the grip of the pandemic means that Thursday’s reopening will provide a stark contrast to 2020, when Chinese markets plunged by the most value on record after an extended Lunar New Year break.
“The market will stay bullish,” said Kingston Lin, managing director of the asset management department at Canfield Securities in Hong Kong. “The only matter is how much it will rise.”
Traders had bid the CSI 300 Index up to 13-year highs in January, but momentum cooled as investors shifted a record level of money into Hong Kong stocks as domestic prices surged. The city’s $7.7 trillion equity market also stands to benefit from the reopening of trading links with the mainland, after an influx of mainland cash helped propel a world-beating rally for the Hang Seng Index. The gauge, which saw its best start to year since 1985, is up 14%.
One key expectation is that the People’s Bank of China will conduct medium-term lending facility operations on Thursday, with 200 billion yuan worth of loans due to expire.
How China’s central bank balances support for an uneven economic recovery without fueling excessive speculation is a key driver of investor sentiment. Traders were rattled by January’s liquidity squeeze when the PBOC withdrew cash from the financial system for the first time in six months, but authorities have drip-fed funding since then to calm money markets and suppress interest rates.
While there are signs China’s economic recovery from the pandemic remains unbalanced, it is outpacing the rest of the world, having roared back to pre-pandemic growth rates in the fourth quarter.
“We’re all talking about the global pandemic recovery but the speed of recovery in China has been faster than any other country,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “While there are still sufficient funds in the market, more foreign investors will continue eyeing Chinese markets.”
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