Analysts at TF International Securities said in a note Tuesday that Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) 2024 iPhone shipments are likely to "decline significantly" by about 15% year-on-year (YoY) due to structural challenges.
Analysts explained that their latest supply chain survey indicates Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY).
"Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024," they stated. "iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively)."
Meanwhile, analysts believe one of the structural challenges the iPhone faces is the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design, such as AI and foldable phones.
In addition, the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market is another issue. They note that Apple's weekly shipments in China have declined by 30–40% YoY in recent weeks, with the downward trend expected to continue.
Analysts don't see Apple launching new iPhone models with significant design changes until 2025 at the earliest, which they expect will likely harm Apple's iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.