(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): Mainland China Exposure Data File - November 2018 https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10050591 Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Singapore-November 08: 本文章英文原文最初于2018年11月5日发布于：Fitch Ratings: Headwinds to Foreign Banks' Chinese Lending Rising /a 2018年上半年，外资银行的中国内地风险敞口(MCE)首次超过2万亿美元，但与2017年的强劲增长相比，增速有所放缓。惠誉评级表示，中美贸易战带来的阻力不断上升 和预期中国经济前景疲弱，预示中国经济在2018年下半年和2019年或将出现暂时性下滑，但惠誉预计，结构性因素仍将在中期内持续推动MCE及其相关风险的增长。 惠誉的数据显示，2017年末至2018年6月底，外资银行的MCE规模增加了2.9%，相比2017年，由于紧缩的国内信贷条件刺激了境外借贷，全年增幅达18.3%。 惠誉之前曾强调，MCE的迅猛增长可能意味着风险偏好的上升，目前的增速虽有放缓，但风险依然存在。 一个值得关注的例子是，香港银行向中国民营企业放贷的力度仍然很大。这些银行的整体MCE规模（占外资银行MCE的近一半）在2018年上半年增长了2.3%，而香港金管 局的最新数据显示，自2017年末到2018年7月底，香港银行对内地银行的债权规模下降了0.5%，但2018年上半年对内地民营企业的放贷增长了12.1%。资本薄弱 的中资银行放贷受限，这将继续为外资银行在中国内地的扩张提供契机，尤其是向民营企业的放贷，这些企业获得国内银行贷款的机会比国有企业更为有限。 对香港数据的分析还显示，中资银行的香港子公司和分行内地放贷的缩减幅度最大。例如，2018年上半年，中银香港的MCE下降了8%。相比之下，尽管短期内还存在不确定性 ，汇丰银行、渣打银行（香港）和恒生银行的敞口规模均扩大了4%-5%，星展银行的香港分行和子公司也将其敞口规模扩大了15%以上。
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外资银行的内地相关放贷阻力上升
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