🎈 Up Big Today: Find today's biggest gainers with our free screenerTry Stock Screener

Australia, NZ dlrs suffer collateral damage in Sino-US trade conflict

Published 29/06/2018, 12:15 pm
Australia, NZ dlrs suffer collateral damage in Sino-US trade conflict
AUD/USD
-
NZD/USD
-
AU10YT=RR
-
CSI300
-

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, June 29 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were on the defensive on Friday after a rough week in which worries about China's economy and asset markets drove both currencies to multi-month lows.

The Aussie dollar AUD=D3 was down 1.2 percent for the week at $0.7340 and within a whisker of a one-year trough at $0.7323.

It still has some support around the $0.7329 low from May last year, but bearish charts flag the risk of a return to the December 2016 nadir of $0.7160.

The kiwi was pinned at $0.6743 NZD=D3 , having shed 2.4 percent in a week that saw it delve depths not visited since June 2016 at $0.6739.

Dealers said the market was now very short of the currency, which could provide a brief break from selling, but a bearish chart backdrop meant the next likely target was a $0.6676 trough from May 2016.

Speculators have been selling the currencies as a liquid proxy for Chinese assets which have been taking a beating amid mounting Sino-U.S. trade tensions.

The yuan CNH=D3 has fallen steadily to six-month lows while Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 shed 5 percent just this week to reach a 13-month low.

"We think the yuan and Chinese equities deserve close attention at the moment, further declines will undoubtedly increase the risk of contagion," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.

At a policy review this week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand highlighted the risk poised to the export-driven economy from a possible trade war. RBNZ took a dovish tone as it emphasised rates would remain at record lows for some time to come, a clear contrast to the tightening bias of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Likewise, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is considered certain to keep its cash rate at an all-time low of 1.5 percent at a policy meeting on July 3.

The bank has made it abundantly clear it is no hurry to tighten given wage growth and inflation remain uncomfortably low, leaving the market to push a hike ever further into the future.

Interbank rate futures 0#YIB: imply a cash rate of 1.69 percent for November next year, implying around a 76 percent chance of a 25 basis-point increase by then.

The global risks to growth have driven up demand for triple-A rated Australian bonds, pushing 10-year yields AU10YT=RR down to 2.62 percent from highs around 2.84 percent in mid-May.

On Friday, the three-year bond future YTTc1 was up 1.5 ticks at 97.935, while the 10-year contract YTCc1 held steady at 97.3750.

New Zealand government bond yields were a tick lower at the short end of the curve 0#NZTSY= .

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.