ING Economic and Financial Analysis

As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a...

In response to criticism of tariff 'confusion', President Trump stepped in emphatically yesterday to announce that tariffs would be going ahead on Canada, Mexico, and China next Tuesday. That's the...

The US dollar has come under some pressure on the back of the rerating of the US growth outlook and expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is nearing an end. However, we expect US tariffs to...

FX volatility levels remain close to two-month lows as investors weigh up dominant themes. The possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine certainly plays a role, judging by the pricing of assets in...

Oil prices are largely under pressure amid demand concerns, while the European gas market continues to sell off aggressively Energy – TTF Sell-Off Continues Oil prices continued to trend lower...

The US dollar has found a little support overnight after the House passed a budget blueprint bill laying the groundwork for President Trump's tax-cutting agenda. The focus on fiscal might buy a...

Energy prices are under pressure amid demand concerns and improving prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. But tariff risks continue to hit metal markets Energy-WTI Below $70 Energy markets came...

Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence...

Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro (EUR/USD) got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without...

Oil prices are under increasing downward pressure as sentiment sours. Friday’s sell-off in US equities only added to the weakness in energy markets Energy- Speculators Trim Oil Positions Oil prices...

The US dollar has given up all its gains for the week as soft data and US earnings seem to be casting doubts on the notion of US exceptionalism. The USD/JPY is the big winner, receiving extra help...

The standout move in overnight FX markets has been the drop in USD/JPY close to 150 as traders get excited about another hike from the Bank of Japan. Expect USD/JPY to stay offered today before...

The EU agreed on a 16th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on aluminium imports and additional curbs on Russian vessels Energy – EU Sanctions Russian Vessels Supply uncertainty...

Markets continue to carefully assess the implications of Russia-US talks, but we are observing an emerging trend of euro underperformance linked to Trump’s growing isolationism against EU allies....

Despite the start of talks between the US and Russia, oil prices edged higher with supply risks dominating the market Energy Supply Uncertainty The Crude oil market appears to have found some support...

Should Russia and Ukraine ultimately reach a peace deal, the US dollar is probably due another moderate correction – but for now, markets are lacking tangible bearish USD drivers and we think the...