ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A key takeaway from the recent fluctuations in major G10 pairs is that, at this stage, data matters much more than central bank communication. The mass of hawkish comments - ranging from modest to...

Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....

The oil market rallied yesterday partly driven by supply concerns related to the halting of operations at the Ceyhan export terminal. However, these worries should subside with Turkey ordering the...

Jay Powell did not rock markets as he acknowledged more strong data can imply a higher peak rate but still appeared to be hanging on to the disinflation story. The dollar still faces moderate upside...

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate range 25bp to 4.5%-4.75% and indicated it isn’t finished yet. With the economy losing momentum, the jobs market showing tentative signs of cooling, and...

US market rates fell after the Federal Reserve decision but this looks more like a market positioning effect than anything specific from the meeting. Expect some retracement. Both the European Central...

The dollar has broken to new lows for the year after a relaxed-sounding Fed Chair Powell said there were the first clear signs of disinflation. He also failed to push back too aggressively on lower...

US Dollar: Action kicks off tomorrowThe dollar starts the week in very narrow ranges and not far from the lows of the year. This week will stress test the consensus view amongst investors that i) the...

Energy - Specs Boost Buying Price action in oil over the last week was rangebound with the market awaiting this week’s OPEC+ meeting and the return of China from the Lunar New Year holidays....

Notable yesterday was the dollar selling off after the Bank of Canada said it was ready to pause/end its tightening cycle. Some in the market could be thinking the Fed is of a similar mindset. At the...

While European gas prices continue to edge lower, US natural gas prices have also come under pressure, falling to their lowest levels since May 2021.Energy - US Natural Gas Falls Below $3/MMBtuICE...

In what is yet another disappointing set of US activity data, retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in December, worse than the -0.9% figure the market was expecting. Meanwhile, November's...

To quote a former UK Prime Minister, when asked about the most significant challenges faced by his administration, the answer came: “Events, dear boy, events”. The same can be said for...

The bulk of the commodities complex managed to edge higher yesterday despite some hawkish comments from Fed officials. Markets await US CPI data which will be released on ThursdayEnergy- Record U.S....

A weaker US dollar index provided some support to the commodity complex, while expectations for an improvement in the Chinese demand outlook provided a further boostEnergy- USD Supports the ComplexThe...

Energy - Prompt Demand Concerns The weak start to the New Year has continued for oil. ICE Brent fell by a further 5.19% yesterday, which left the market trading convincingly below US$80/bbl. Time...