Originally published by CMC Markets
The possibility of a reduced Conservative majority or even a minority government is unlikely to have a significant impact on broader global markets. The biggest market moves are likely to be confined to the UK economy.
At this stage it is unclear what, if any, impact this will have on Brexit negotiations. Much will depend on who the new Prime Minister will be. A reduced Conservative majority may improve the voice of the hard Brexit voice inside the government. A coalition government might do the opposite, giving an increased voice to more moderate, pro-globalisation forces.
The British pound will be a key sentiment barometer this morning. It bounced neatly off chart support at 1.2709 earlier. A clear break below this support would indicate deepening market concern over the election result.
Yesterday’s news of China’s strong export and import growth is encouraging. This helps offset concerns over soft PMI data. It indicates ongoing growth in China’s economy that will remain supportive for commodities in the near term.