Originally published by AxiTrader
Quick Recap
The AUD/USD is lower this morning, sitting at 0.7583. But it's not really about the Aussie dollar at all - it's about the moves in the US dollar, better US data, increased expectations of a December Fed rate hike, and traders betting tonight's non-farm payrolls in the US will confirm this changed view.
The Aussie sat comfortably below 76 cents for most of night suggesting there will be supply above and approaching that level on the day with the outlook suggesting the chance of a drift toward 0.7540 support is high.
What You Need To Know
That forex markets are all about "pairs" AUDUSD, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, is well known. But often people forget that because there are two sides to any forex pair it is not always about the Aussie, the yen, or some other currency.
That's the situation the Australian dollar finds itself in this morning.
While the consistent supply at, around, and above 77 cents in recent months was about the Aussie dollar and Australia the move back below 76 cents is all about the US dollar which is strengthening on the back of better economic data which from the US this week.
So far this week we have seen improved conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors and last night's print of just 249,000 new jobless claims for the most recent week - the second lowest number since 1973 - has fueled expectations of a strong non-farm payrolls tonight.
The average of market forecasts for September payrolls is 170,000 but the move higher in the US dollar and the rise in US 10 year treasuries to 1.74% suggests that traders are betting on a larger number, perhaps 200,000 or a strong upward revision to Augusts 126,000.
That poses both an opportunity and a risk for the Australian dollar into week's end.
Opportunity, because if traders are over egging the data points this week into an unrealistic expectation of the strength of the US jobs market - which has been pretty erratic over the past 4 months - then the Aussie could rally back toward 0.7640/50 on a weak result.
The threat of course comes from the expectation of strength being delivered with a big number tonight.
That's particularly the case as the odds of a Fed hike in December have been market up more than 10% to above 60% in the past week. It's also a threat because so many markets are breaking out in a manner that suggests a change back to favouring the US dollar and US economic strength.
USDJPY is at 104, gold is at $1250, the EUR/USD is at 1.1140, Sterling has collapsed to the low 1.26 region and the CAD/USD is still at 1.32 even though oil is ripping higher.
So a strong number could knock the AUDUSD down to test recent daily trendline support around 0.7506 from the May low. But the trendline from the 2016 low comes in around 0.7480. And below there it's the recent low at 0.7450 which traders will be watching closely.
It all depends on non-farms tonight.
Have a great day's trading