Market Overview

Stocks finished the day higher, rising about 1.1%. It didn’t take much—just word that President Trump would delay auto tariffs by a month. But in a negative gamma environment, momentum can build...

According to the most recent Polymarket odds, 39% of betters believe recession is on the table during 2025, which is an uptick of 18% over the last week. However, many hold the view that the economy...

The rollout of President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China has roiled expectations for US economic activity in the first quarter. Prior to what is shaping up to be a global tariff war,...

Tariffs are on, tariffs are off—does anyone even know what’s happening anymore? It’s completely confusing and honestly impossible to keep up with. I stepped away for 30 minutes to take my daughter to...

Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with server market corrections and crashes. While concerns about the recent market correction have risen, and bearish headlines...

The latest economic indicators aren’t supporting our resilient-economy thesis. Nevertheless, we are sticking with it for now. Consider the following: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model lowered...

Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. Over the previous week, the market fell sharply following news of a...

Stocks got a major boost last Friday afternoon as implied volatility dropped sharply in the final hours of the day, aided by a large end-of-month $4+ billion buy imbalance for the closing cross....

LINK If the history of the capital cycle is any guide, the massive allocation into AI capex in recent years is very likely to lead to especially poor returns for investors in the years to come,...

The combination of extremely rich equity valuations, high interest rates, and a new President taking bold actions will likely continue to whip stocks around for the foreseeable future. Alongside...

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in...

A couple of weeks ago, I presented a blog post called “Trump Era Volatility: The Impact on Portfolio Allocations,” in which I pointed out that the effect of increasing volatility generally is to...

Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street....

Recent headlines appear to have shaken investor sentiment. It’s premature to read too much into a few days of weaker-than-expected survey numbers. More importantly, the latest data indicate that the...