Market Overview

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the Fed’s positioning regarding future rate cuts caught the market off guard. Looking back, it was somewhat obvious. Earlier yesterday, I shared...

The Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting is set to be a pivotal moment for markets. While a 25bps rate cut is a foregone conclusion, recent data showing sticky inflation and a resilient economy...

The market is confident that a 25-basis-points reduction in interest rate is a done-deal for today’s policy announcement, based on Fed funds futures. But the question of whether the Fed should cut is...

In August, the BLS revised 2024 employment growth lower by 818k jobs in its preliminary revision of its Current Employment Statistics (CES). Despite the substantial revision, more reductions to the...

It was another weak day for the markets. The S&P 500 closed lower by 39 basis points, but the weakness was more pronounced in the RSP equal-weight index, down 80 basis points. The Dow dropped for...

Several updated nowcasts for US economic activity in the fourth quarter have been revised sharply higher recently, but the median estimate barely changed, based on the several data points from a...

The US Dollar Index is up over 6% this year, almost all attributable to a post-election surge. As many developed nations show stagnant economic growth or even contraction, the U.S. economy continues...

Last Thursday, we wrote, "After today's PPI, we won't be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like "Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause...

Sunday's Commentary touched on the divergence between robust economic growth in the U.S. and near-recessionary conditions in Canada. We highlighted the importance of this to U.S. investors because of...

First Comes The Fed, Then Santa Last week, we discussed that the risk to the markets was the annual portfolio rebalancing process. To wit: “With the year-end approaching, portfolio managers need to...

Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” ended yesterday in Vancouver. The extraordinary singer started this sixth concert tour in Glendale, Arizona on March 17, 2023. The tour consisted of 149 shows spanning...

While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat. This is...

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s meeting. Unlike the...

The S&P 500 fell by about 50 basis points yesterday, with the NASDAQ down roughly 65 basis points. PPI came in slightly hotter on the headline numbers, but as I reviewed with members earlier, if...