Market Overview

Fed funds futures are still leaning into expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target rate next by a quarter point, but the related confidence of the forecast is slipping. The current...

The closely watched U.S. October CPI report comes out today. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.6% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.3%. Investors should brace for possible market...

Like Icarus, the stock market may be flying too close to the sun these days. The mood seems euphoric, with many headlines calling for further gains and analysts’ price targets reaching absurd levels....

Despite recession concerns, economic growth showed resilience, while equities retreated in October and inflation continued its slow decline. Nuclear energy was poised to power the future of AI, while...

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To...

Stocks ended the day mostly mixed. The technology sector was down, while small caps and financials were higher, leading to the S&P 500 finishing near flat. Dollar The bond market was closed...

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs was a groundbreaking concept when it first appeared in 1943. American psychologist Abraham Maslow argued that certain basic needs—food, water, shelter, etc.—must be met...

Most traders wait for a pullback to enter. I don’t. Instead, I focus on timing my entries in specific trading windows for the Asia and New York sessions. Why? Because I want momentum on my side.  In...

This weekend, we will examine some of the long-term market cycles across various assets to help set the stage for the coming months as we begin to look toward 2025. All charts below come from...

It’s difficult to count the number of mainstream macro theories that we’ve debunked over the past few years. Many long-used relationships and correlations have been upended by record monetary and...

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities...

Donald Trump won the election by a clearer and wider margin than what was expected, and the Republicans gained control of the Senate. In the short-term, we believe this outcome is likely to be...

The latest UK government budget, which saw big tax rises but even bigger spending increases projected for 2025-26, has forced markets to rethink Bank of England expectations. Rates are expected to...

The Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps yesterday as widely expected. We expected it as well, though we still believe that the now 75bps cut in the FFR since September 18 is too much, too...