Originally published by AxiTrader
The technicals on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 after the past two days price action look truly awful. So much so I'm almost ready to take my heart in my mouth and do the unthinkable in 2017 and sell stocks.
Why stocks in the US are off is not easily understood on fundamentals, as the tax plan looks like it is actually going to become law. But the price action suggests this could be an interesting convergence in time between a "buy the rumour sell the (almost) fact" type trade and an approaching year end which has traders, investors, and hedge funds worried about protecting the profits they have made in this most stellar of bull markets since the 2016 presidential election.
Indeed the charts suggest perhaps even a 500-700 point fall could happen in the Dow Jones when I look at my charts.
Where the US stocks head, and what that implies about and does to investor risk appetite is going to be important for Asia's stock markets which are trying to stage a recovery after the recent weakness. While the China A50 Index has enjoyed two days of solid recovery - good data certainly helps - both the Nikkei and the Hang Seng are on, near, or breaking support and have more in common with the setup in US markets.
Just look at this chart of the HSI over recent days. It hasn't exactly broken the trendline I highlighted because it managed to close back above it yesterday. But slippage below and through the line and yesterday's low would suggest a move to the trendline from the last year's rally which comes in around 28,100/28,150.
Turning to Asia forex markets now and my trading system generated a buy signal for USD/SGD this morning at the close of New York. I haven't placed an order yet because I want to see it up and through 1.35 first - USD/SGD is currently 1.3468 as I write.
This signal comes on top of a buy signal I've received this week for USD/KRW and other pairs.
Clearly, as the euro drifts - watch for a break of 1.1799 - it puts upward pressure on DollarAsia. As usual, the Singapore dollar is my bellwether for the region and if I see it up and through 1.35 then I'll have a signal that after a period of DollarAsia weakness the worm may have turned.
Here's USD/SGD:
Have a great day's trading.