Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
🚨 Our Pro Data Reveals the True Winner of Earnings Season Access Data

Is Inflation Really Easing, or Is it Just a Head Fake?

By James PicernoMarket OverviewDec 09, 2022 05:38
au.investing.com/analysis/is-inflation-really-easing-or-is-it-just-a-head-fake-200539194
Is Inflation Really Easing, or Is it Just a Head Fake?
By James Picerno   |  Dec 09, 2022 05:38
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Inflation is easing, or so recent data shows. The debate is now centered on how fast and how far pricing pressure will slide — or if the recent easing is a head fake. In other words, it’s the perfect time to launch a resource that summarizes and updates several of the key inflation indicators that deserve close attention on a monthly basis: The US Inflation Trend Chartbook.

This report will be published shortly after each monthly release of US consumer price indexes.

Here’s a selection of charts from the current report. First up is comparison of variations on the standard headline consumer price index (CPI). Looking at the trends on a rolling one-year basis through October clearly shows that pricing pressure has peaked, although the level of inflation remains elevated vs. the pre-surge period.

U.S. Consumer Inflation Indexes
U.S. Consumer Inflation Indexes

The next chart shows the “bias” of the one-year changes in the chart above. Here, too, there’s a clear indication that the trend has turned lower in recent months. The average for the US Consumer Inflation Bias Indexes was negative for a second month in October. Since May, this measure of bias has been sub-zero for all but one month, a trend that suggests inflationary pressure will continue to ease.

U.S. Consumer Inflation Bias Indexes
U.S. Consumer Inflation Bias Indexes

A number of other indicators also show a clear break in the recent inflation surge. For example, the one-year changes in the US monetary base and industrial materials prices have been posting negative one-results recently.

Monetary Base Vs. Industrial Materials
Monetary Base Vs. Industrial Materials

Finally, here’s the current forecast for core CPI, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s ensemble modeling.

Is Inflation Really Easing, or Is it Just a Head Fake?
 

Related Articles

Antoine Bouvet
Rates Spark: The End Is Near By Antoine Bouvet - Feb 02, 2023

US market rates fell after the Federal Reserve decision but this looks more like a market positioning effect than anything specific from the meeting. Expect some retracement. Both...

Is Inflation Really Easing, or Is it Just a Head Fake?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email