What traders are talking about:
Turkey.
It will likely be a nervous start into the new trading week after the coup attempt in Turkey over the weekend. While the coup has failed, it will put further pressure on Turkey’s already damaged economy and scare foreign investors. USD/TRY rallied from 2.89 to 3.04 on Friday, as news about the coup came out, and finished the trading day around 3.01. The TRY pairs will see high volatility at the Monday open and the outlook for the Turkish Lira remains bearish.
Dovish Fed talk
Two members of the Federal Reserve spoke on Friday and the comments were dovish. Fed's Kashkari said that the Fed has been wrong in forecasting the progression of the economy and that the chance of overshooting the inflation target is zero, with inflation staying too low more of a risk. Fed's Bullard said that expects another rate hike in 2016, but then no more until 2019.
CFTC positioning data
The CFTC released its latest positioning data on Friday. The report showed that positioning changed the most in USD/JPY, where speculators cut JPY long positions by 16,000. Meanwhile, Euro short positions rose by 13k and GBP short positions by 11k. Another notable change was seen in AUD , where speculators went long another 11k contracts, bringing the number of longs to 16k.
Focus on RBA and ECB
The main monetary policy events this week will be the release of the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank is expected to keep all interest rates unchanged, as well as the size of its QE programme.
Inflation data & UK employment figures
This week, we will also get plenty of inflation figures, starting with New Zealand today. On Tuesday, the UK will publish its latest CPI numbers and on Friday, we'll get the Canadian inflation print. On Wednesday, the UK will also release its latest employment figures, with the claimant count change expected at +4.0k.
What the Charts are saying
USD/TRY after news about the coup came out. 