Originally published by AxiTrader
Markets Overview:
- Equities: Nikkei 225 (+1.09 %), Hang Seng (+0.69 %), CSI 300 300 (+0.02 %), KOSPI (-0.10 %), S&P/ASX 200 (+0.16 %)
- Commodities: Crude Oil $51.38 (-0.43 %), Brent Oil $52.54 (-0.25 %), Natural Gas $3.18 (+0.32 %), Gold $1272.48 (+0.26 %), Copper $211.05 (+0.33 %)
What traders are talking about:
Aussie Dollar declines after jobs data
The AUD/USD tumbled after the recent employment figures were released. Employment change arrived at -9.8k vs. +15.0k expected and the previous figure was revised lower to -8.6k. While the unemployment rate fell from 5.7 % to 5.6%, full employment change also declined by 53k vs. +10k previously. AUD/USD declined from 0.7730 to 0.7690 after the numbers were published, and extended losses to 0.7660 later in the session. It continues to post fresh lows as we are heading into the EU open, and support can be expected at 0.7650, followed by 0.7580.
Mexican Peso extends gains after 3rd debate
The Mexican Peso strengthened overnight, after the third US presidential debate, in which Clinton was again seen as the winner by the majority. USD/MXN fell from 18.56 to a low of 18.45, a fresh one-month low. The Peso has been recovering in the past few weeks as the chances of Trump winning the election have declined. The currency was also supported by the rise in Crude Oil prices. Looking at the charts, the next major support level lies at 17.90 and it is likely that we will see it being tested soon, as the probability of Clinton winning increases.
UBS bearish on Yuan
The Swiss bank is expecting that China's GDP will stand at 6.5-6.6 % in Q4 of this year, but expects GDP to decline to 6.3 % next year. UBS also forecasts the USD/CNY to rise towards 6.8 by end of this year and trade as high as 7.2 next year. USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) is currently trading at 6.7458.
Euro quiet pre-ECB
EUR/USD traded in a 1.0960-80 range overnight and flows remain light ahead of the ECB meeting today. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged as there are several key event risks this Winter (US elections, Italy referendum), and the staff will not release its updated economic forecasts until December. Analysts at the major banks mostly agree that the ECB will do very little today, although opinions are mixed about how dovish Draghi will be. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) expects "Draghi to sound dovish and reject talk of early tapering", but UBS warns that “rates markets seem to be pricing in a fairly dovish outlook for ECB monetary policy and euro zone fundamentals, setting a high bar for the ECB to deliver a more dovish outcome than what is already priced in”.
Economic Calendar:
- 09:00 BST - Euro Zone Current Account
- 09:30 BST - UK Retail Sales
- 12:45 BST - ECB Interest Rate Decision
- 13:30 BST - ECB Press Conference
- 13:30 BST - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 BST - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15:00 BST - US Existing Home Sales
- 15:00 BST - US CB Leading Index