Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Earnings Estimates May Be The Next Shoe To Drop For Markets

By Michael KramerStock MarketsJul 01, 2022 18:13
au.investing.com/analysis/earnings-estimates-may-be-the-next-shoe-to-drop-for-markets-200514107
Earnings Estimates May Be The Next Shoe To Drop For Markets
By Michael Kramer   |  Jul 01, 2022 18:13
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

This article was written exclusively for Investing.com

Earnings season may be about three weeks away, but earnings estimates are already starting to change. While the S&P 500 is down sharply this year, S&P 500 earnings are not.

But they are finally beginning to show signs of coming down. While this process started in the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite weeks ago, it was a long wait before the S&P turned.  

These revisions could get more prominent as we get closer to earnings season, resulting in EPS estimates sliding more. Revisions down could be the next shoe to drop for the index. 

Estimates Are Now Rolling Over

This year so far, earnings estimates for the S&P have continually climbed, reaching a high of $228.54 per share on June 13, after starting the year around $220 per share.

While they have fallen off those highs, it has been less than 1%, dropping to just $227.86. Meanwhile, the S&P has slumped around 20%. It tells us a lot that all of the declines in the S&P 500, to this point, have been on multiple contractions.  

Of course, the S&P 500 now finds itself trading at 16.75 times 2022 forecast earnings, down from 22.7 at the start of the year and the high point. This poses another problem for the stock market, should earnings estimates begin to decline. Declining earnings estimates will push up P/E ratios if the index does not fall at the same pace as earnings. 

So, if earnings estimates start dropping, the S&P will need to slide with those earnings in order to maintain the current 16.7 P/E ratio. For the P/E ratio to fall to 14, the index would need to drop even faster than earnings estimates.

Increasing earnings estimates during H1 2022 have helped cushion some of the blow to the index. Declines could have been much worse. 


Energy Saving The Day

One reason S&P earnings have held up better than NASDAQ is the energy sector. Earning forecasts across the sector have soared, almost doubling. This is due to the soaring price of crude oil and other commodities like natural gas and gasoline.

But as the chart shows, earnings estimates for the energy sector have now started to flatten, and that could be because energy commodities have started to top out. If those commodity prices fall further, it could begin to push earnings estimates for the sector lower, pushing earnings estimates for the entire S&P 500 even lower. 

The two largest S&P energy companies are Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon (NYSE:XOM). Their earnings estimates have also stopped rising. Now it is possible that as earnings season nears, those estimates may start to be revised up.

But with oil prices starting to fall, they may also be revised lower. This means that Chevron and Exxon maybe two of the most important stocks to keep an eye on as earnings season approaches. 

XOM And CMP EPS
XOM And CMP EPS

it is worth noting that Chevron and Exxon's share prices have fallen dramatically in recent weeks. This could be an indication of what the market is thinking regarding their future earnings. 

If price leads earnings estimates, the second half of 2022 will see earnings estimates fall dramatically. 

Earnings Estimates May Be The Next Shoe To Drop For Markets
 

Related Articles

Earnings Estimates May Be The Next Shoe To Drop For Markets

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email